top of page

Resultados de la búsqueda

24 items found for ""

  • Mexico: the world’s crime market par excellence

    The country ranks top of a list of 193 where illicit economic activities are classified by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime Human trafficking and smuggling, financial fraud, drug sales, piracy, and territorial extortion; in a global list of “criminal markets” comprised of 193 countries, Mexico comes out on top, exposing the reach that criminal groups have in Latin America’s second-largest economy. According to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), the non-profit organization behind the published index, the rising trends in Mexico are extremely concerning. The index is a biennial study that combines hundreds of indicators to rank the countries that suffer most from criminality. In this index, Myanmar, Colombia and Mexico occupy the top three spots. They are followed by Paraguay and the Republic of Congo. Source: Global index of organized crime 2023 by GI-TOC A sub-index within the report focuses on so-called “criminal markets” and how they are penetrating the mainstream economy. In this category, Mexico takes the crown, driven by the high incidence of illegal protection rackets, human trafficking, and the cocaine and synthetic drug trade. “What is evolving for the worse in terms of violence are two trends: protection money demands through extortion rackets and the criminalization of very strong industries such as agriculture,” says Romain Le Cour Grandmaison, a research specialist and one of the authors of the report. “The trends are very worrying.” Transport workers, who are now targets of organized crime and whose murders have been on the rise in recent years, have been among those who have complained the most about criminal markets, according to Le Cour Grandmaison. “It is not possible to escape criminal pressure in the transport business; based on protection money, this is partly how it is penetrating the economy to such an extent. In other words, if you don’t do what they say, something will happen to you, so you better pay up.” Although organized crime has moved into many productive activities in Mexico, the drug trade remains a high incidence indicator, according to the GI-TOC report: “Along with the expansion of the cocaine market in the Americas, there has been a significant increase in the synthetic drug trade,” it reads. “North America is the third most affected region in the world in this regard. Within the continent, Mexico appears to be the most affected by this market.” In 2022, the country stood out as a major player in the synthetic drug trade and witnessed an increase in the popularity and production of ketamine, methamphetamine and fentanyl, according to the authors of the report. The weapons used in organized crime come mostly from Mexico’s largest trading partner, the U.S., accounting for between 70% and 90% of the guns that turned up at crime scenes in Mexico last year. “Drug cartels obtain guns in Texas and Arizona and smuggle them across the border,” the report says. “This initial flow sets in motion a chain reaction that turns all Central American countries into transit and destination points for the illegal arms trade and fuels violence and insecurity.” While GI-TOC does not make recommendations specific to each of the major crime countries, it does refer to the problem of transnational organized crime as a global one, and recommends addressing it strategically and prioritizing financial crimes, which facilitate other types of crime. The organization also calls for a focus on the links between crime and corruption. “Organized crime remains a profound challenge around the world, posing a danger to both developed and developing countries and presenting an obstacle to much-needed international cooperation amid growing political, social and economic inequalities,” the report concludes. Source: https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-02-02/mexico-the-worlds-crime-market-par-excellence.html

  • Here’s how the U.S., Europe, and China are faring in the post-pandemic race for economic growth

    Industrial side of the economy posts fastest growth in 17 months Despite the gloomy expectations of recent years, global growth has held up relatively well. However, a succession of shocks–the pandemic, inflation, and the Ukraine war–has tested the resilience of the U.S., Europe, and China in disparate ways. Most significantly, the U.S., starting as a laggard in 2020, is the only bloc that is making a run at returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. To capture the three blocs’ resilience and new growth trajectories, it is not sufficient to compare their growth rates as each has structural components. Instead, the changing fortunes are revealed in each bloc’s ability–or lack thereof–to fight its way back to their pre-pandemic growth path. Today, two questions are vital: Have the conflagrations of recent years pushed the blocs off their old path? If so, can they return to it? The answers demonstrate the three blocs’ true resilience and allow us to sketch their paths ahead. The U.S. has pushed itself to the front The U.S. economy has experienced the most significant reversal of fortunes, fighting back to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory not once, but twice. It may even end up overshooting that old trend. After a savage initial shock, the U.S. managed to recover its old trend path thanks to extraordinary stimulus. But inflation and the rapidly rising rates that came with it pushed output off its trend path a second time. Defying the doubters, the economy delivered a strong soft landing putting the U.S. on a path to its pre-pandemic trend for a second time–a testament to truly remarkable resilience. There are at least three reasons why U.S. resilience is more like a flywheel than a finite, depletable resource. First, strong diversification meant that as the goods overshoot faded in early 2021, a continued recovery in services offset that drag. Second, labor market strength was protected by a significant backlog of demand for workers. Third, household balance sheets were in historically strong shape providing Americans with room to consume even as their real incomes fell. These strong sources of resilience have been enough to withstand the impact of inflation on incomes and budgets as well as the rapid tightening by monetary policymakers. There is little reason to assume that such resilience will come to a sudden stop. And it may turn out even better than that. Near-term, the return of real income growth is set to push the economy. And in the longer term, durable labor market tightness looks set to spark higher productivity growth as firms will be forced to turn to technology to compensate for scarce labor. This makes an overshoot of the old trend very plausible. Severe challenges have broken the eurozone’s momentum The eurozone had its own, less favorable, reversal of fortunes. The Ukraine war dealt the bloc a particularly bad hand. Though the eurozone too proved resilient, avoiding a recession in the nearly two years since the war started, its growth momentum is broken, and the bloc is now pushed off its pre-pandemic course. Though the eurozone recovery was fueled by less significant stimulus than the U.S., it appeared to be on track to take a run at a full trend recovery–until the start of the Ukraine war. A downturn was avoided in a compelling show of resilience, but the shock hit hard and made a trend recovery unlikely. The eurozone’s greater exposure to goods production, Russian energy, and exports left it poorly positioned for the challenges of 2022 and 2023. Rapid adjustments and response to the energy shock showed resilience and proved wrong the initial fears of a severe recession and mothballed production. However, significant pressure on household budgets has meant stagnant growth. Unlike the pandemic-related shock, the energy shock likely downgrades the eurozone’s underlying growth potential by leaving a more lasting impact on real incomes and by weighing on competitiveness at the margin. Even as growth returns in 2024, this makes a full recovery to the old trend unlikely. An indelible mark has been left on the eurozone economy, a fate the U.S. avoided. China’s reversal of fortunes China’s path is another astonishing reversal of fortunes. Its initial recovery was the envy of the rest of the world, yet the economy has now been pushed off its pre-pandemic trend and a return to it looks challenging. Though China’s zero-COVID approach delivered a picture-perfect trend recovery, it ultimately required renewed lockdowns that weighed on growth. At the same time, China’s economic model is undergoing a shift away from investment and toward consumption. The exit from zero-COVID policies was expected to drive a wave of revenge consumption that would catapult China’s economy back to trend. So strong was the conviction in this bounce that many thought the resurgent Chinese consumer would stoke global inflation even further in 2023. However, Chinese consumers lacked the confidence and spending power. Slumps in other areas of the economy, particularly real estate, precluded the hoped-for boom. Can China return to its old trend path? Successful changes to its growth model have been key to the remarkable record of China’s growth over the last 30 years. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, exports were the engine of growth. With the collapse in Western demand, China found a more reliable source of demand in infrastructure and real estate. A boom in building helped drive another decade of impressive growth but has run out of steam. The third shift, replacing investment with consumption as the engine of growth, is well underway but recent history demonstrates the difficulty of achieving instant rewards. It is also a reminder that consumption-driven growth cannot be managed as stringently as is the case with investments. Though a trend recovery looks harder now, China’s slowdown should be seen as a sign of overall success. As economies grow richer, their ability to sustain high growth necessarily declines. Labor growth slows, capital is already accumulated significantly, and therefore continued progress depends on the hardest source of growth–productivity growth. Four years after the start of COVID-19, the three blocs each appear to have settled into new growth trajectories. Even so, new disruptions will follow, and therein lies the challenge for those who need to assess macroeconomic risk. The unpredictability puts a premium on agility and rapid execution when new surprises hit. There is no master plan, no permanent winner, and a fair number of false alarms along the way. Despite the volatility, the global competition for growth is not an impenetrable mystery but an ongoing evolution that requires constant judgment. Source: https://fortune.com/2024/02/12/us-europe-china-post-pandemic-race-economic-growth/

  • Cómo llevar las finanzas en pareja y tener una relación exitosa

    La comunicación, el respeto y la flexibilidad son claves para tener unas finanzas saludables y garantizar el éxito en la relación. Echa un vistazo a estos consejos. La gestión financiera en una relación de pareja es crucial para mantener una convivencia armoniosa y un ambiente familiar sano. El tema del dinero puede llegar a ser un tabú y posiblemente crear conflictos. El Día de San Valentín, además de ser una fecha para planear un festejo romántico, puede convertirse también en un momento para revisar o reorganizar las finanzas en pareja y mantener la armonía. Juan Luis Ordaz, director de educación financiera de Citibanamex, nos comparte ocho consejos para aprovechar esta celebración y lograr cambios que a largo plazo les traerán muchos beneficios como pareja. Comunicación abierta, antes de comenzar una vida en pareja, o para tratar de mejorarla, es fundamental hablar de dinero (ingresos, gastos, deudas y hábitos financieros de ahorro e inversión). Si algún miembro de la pareja tiene una carga financiera considerable, es importante abordar el tema para que no afecte la economía de la pareja en su conjunto. Distribución proporcional, decidir cuánto aportará cada uno para financiar la vida en pareja puede llegar a ser todo un reto. Si bien la fórmula 50/50 puede sonar como la mejor opción, no siempre es así. Consideren la cantidad de ingresos de cada uno y dividan los gastos de manera proporcional. Excedentes y ahorros, después de cubrir los gastos básicos, lo ideal es tener un monto excedente el cual deberá ser destinado al ahorro y a la inversión; aquí es donde pueden surgir algunas diferencias. Decidan en pareja si está práctica será individual o compartida. Una vez tomada la decisión investiguen sobre cuál es la opción que más les convenza y el mejor producto para ustedes. Sueños que se convierten en metas, hablen en pareja sobre sus metas en conjunto. ¿Desean comprar una casa, viajar o simplemente ahorrar para una jubilación tranquila? Establezcan objetivos juntos y trabajen en equipo para alcanzarlos. Fondo de emergencia, tener un colchón financiero nos dará la tranquilidad de poder enfrentar un imprevisto o contingencia financiera. Si está práctica se complementa con protecciones adicionales como seguro de vida, médico y de hogar reduciremos al mínimo la posibilidad de afectar nuestras finanzas ante una emergencia. Recuerda que una pareja precavida vale por dos. Informa a tu pareja de los seguros y productos financieros de los cuales es beneficiario, si ya hicieron la mayor parte de protegerse a sí mismos, a su pareja, hijos y su patrimonio asegúrense de tener la documentación en orden en un lugar que ambos ubiquen a la perfección, así podrán actuar de inmediato ante alguna contingencia. ¿Infidelidad financiera? Se puede dar cuando un miembro de la pareja realiza y oculta un gasto no planeado. Si bien hay muchas tentaciones, lo mejor siempre será tomar una decisión en pareja para evitar tener conflictos por dinero. ¡Aprendan juntos! Nunca está de más aprender sobre algo nuevo y desarrollar nuevas habilidades. Está práctica se puede potenciar si se realiza en pareja. Considera que un nuevo conocimiento puede convertirse en una potencial fuente de ingresos adicionales. Cada pareja es única y lo más importante es encontrar una dinámica que les funcione a ambos. La comunicación, el respeto y la flexibilidad son clave no solo para tener unas finanzas saludables, sino también para garantizar el éxito en la relación. fuente: https://www.forbes.com.mx/como-llevar-las-finanzas-en-pareja-y-tener-una-relacion-exitosa/

  • GLOBAL ECONOMY SET FOR WEAKEST HALF-DECADE PERFORMANCE IN 30 YEARS

    Reforms to boost investment and strengthen fiscal policy could help turn the tide WASHINGTON, Jan. 9, 2024— As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024 —the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. By one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago: the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the U.S. economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy. Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic . Meanwhile, borrowing costs for developing economies—especially those with poor credit ratings—are likely to remain steep with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms. Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row—from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. Developing economies are projected to grow just 3.9%, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade. After a disappointing performance last year, low-income countries should grow 5.5%, weaker than previously expected. By the end of 2024, people in about one out of every four developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the COVID pandemic in 2019. In advanced economies, meanwhile, growth is set to slow to 1.2% this year from 1.5% in 2023. “Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries—especially the poorest—stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people. That would obstruct progress on many global priorities. Opportunities still exist to turn the tide. This report offers a clear way forward: it spells out the transformation that can be achieved if governments act now to accelerate investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks.” To tackle climate change and achieve other key global development goals by 2030, developing countries will need to deliver a formidable increase in investment —about $2.4 trillion per year. Without a comprehensive policy package, prospects for such an increase are not bright. Per capita investment growth in developing economies between 2023 and 2024 is expected to average only 3.7%, just over half the rate of the previous two decades. The report offers the first global analysis of what it will take to generate a sustained investment boom, drawing from the experience of 35 advanced economies and 69 developing economies over the past 70 years. It finds that developing economies often reap an economic windfall when they accelerate per capita investment growth to at least 4% and sustain it for six years or more: the pace of convergence with advanced-economy income levels speeds up, the poverty rate declines more swiftly, and productivity growth quadruples. Other benefits also materialize during these booms: among other things, inflation falls, fiscal and external positions improve, and people’s access to the internet expands rapidly. “Investment booms have the potential to transform developing economies and help them speed up the energy transition and achieve a wide variety of development objectives,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “To spark such booms, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy packages to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border trade and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the quality of institutions. That is hard work, but many developing economies have been able to do it before. Doing it again will help mitigate the projected slowdown in potential growth in the rest of this decade.” The latest Global Economic Prospects also identifies what two-thirds of developing countries—commodity exporters specifically—can do to avoid boom-and-bust cycles. The report finds that governments in these countries often adopt fiscal policies that intensify booms and busts. When increases in commodity prices boost growth by 1 percentage point, for example, governments increase spending in ways that boost growth by an additional 0.2 percentage point. In general, in good times, fiscal policy tends to overheat the economy. In bad times it deepens the slump. This “procyclicality” is 30 percent stronger in commodity-exporting developing economies than it is in other developing economies. Fiscal policies also tend to be 40 percent more volatile in these economies than in other developing economies. The instability associated with higher procyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy produces a chronic drag on the growth prospects of commodity-exporting developing economies. The drag can be reduced—by putting in place a fiscal framework that helps discipline government spending, by adopting flexible exchange-rate regimes, and by avoiding restrictions on the movement of international capital. On average, these policy measures could help commodity exporters in developing economies boost their per capita GDP growth by as much as 1 percentage point every four or five years. Countries can also benefit by building sovereign-wealth funds and other rainy-day funds that can be deployed quickly in an emergency. Source: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/01/09/global-economic-prospects-january-2024-press-release?intcid=ecr_hp_headerB_2024-01-09-GEPPressRelease

  • WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE MEXICAN ECONOMY IN 2024 ACCORDING TO TWO TOP ECONOMIC FORECASTERS

    Banorte’s Alejandro Padilla and UBS’ Rafael de la Fuente told Bloomberg Línea that the country’s presidential elections shouldn’t disrupt momentum from private consumption and investment Mexico City — Mexico is poised to reignite its private consumption and investment engines in 2024, propelling growth in Latin America’s second-largest economy as the country goes through its longest-ever electoral period, two of the countries top analysts said to Bloomberg Línea. Their predictions were made as a record level of public spending was set in motion by the current administration, and despite potential risks associated with Mexico’s presidential election and expectations of an economic slowdown in the United States. Alejandro Padilla, Chief Economist at Banorte, and Rafael de la Fuente, Chief Economist for Latin America at UBS, both of whom are forecasting robust GDP growth for Mexico in 2024, received Focus Economics’ 2023 Best Economic Forecasters award. The presidential election is not sounding any alarms in the Mexican market just yet, Padilla and de la Fuente said. The electoral contest will unfold within a democratic and legal framework, with no expectations of any major threats to macroeconomic stability in Mexico, regardless of whether Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez, the leading candidates, end up securing the presidency. “We need to be vigilant about the progress of the electoral process, but the baseline scenario is that there will be continuity in macroeconomic stability,” stated Padilla. “If the political environment becomes more complex due to closely contested elections, that could be a concerning situation. However, current polls indicate a low probability” of that happening, De la Fuente noted. Nearshoring and foreign investment are two of the other main variables to monitor this year, due to their considerable impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. ECONOMIC FORECASTS FROM AMLO AND BANXICO At the end of 2023, the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration confirmed its projection of growth between 2.5% to 3.5% for the Mexican economy in 2024. The government anticipated GDP growth for the final year of AMLO’s term would be driven by private consumption and higher levels of both public and private sector investment. Household consumption in 2024 was expected to be fueled by higher minimum wages and the implementation of various social programs. After a 20% minimum wage hike as of January, 5.5% of the approved federal budget of MXN$9 trillion will be attributable to only three social programs: Pensions for Older Adults, Pensions for People with Disabilities, and “Sembrando Vida”. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico), for its part, adjusted its growth forecast upward in Novembre. The revision was attributed to the expansive fiscal measures that were announced ahead of the final year of the AMLO administration. Banxico now estimates that the economy will grow between 2.3% and 3.7% in 2024. This figure surpasses the 2.1% forecasted at the end of August. Notably, the central bank believes that economic activity will be stronger in the first half of the year, aligning with historical patterns observed in election years. ALEJANDRO PADILLA: SOCIAL PROGRAMS SUPPORT CONSUMPTION INERTIA Alejandro Padilla, Deputy General Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banorte, told Bloomberg Línea that his bank is expecting growth of 2.4% in 2024, supported by catalysts observed in 2023, such as private consumption, investment, remittances, and favorable conditions in the labor market and bank credit. While the economy will expand less than the 3.3% estimated for 2023, this year will have several fundamentals that will follow through, such as investment in infrastructure projects that the government aims to complete before the June 2 elections and foreign investment attracted by nearshoring initiatives. Padilla emphasized that public spending on social programs will be a factor to consider in 2024, as it accounts for 2.1 percentage points of the GDP and contributes to consumption. “We think that the first half of the year will be supported by fiscal stimulus, namely social programs and infrastructure projects, which will help the economy maintain a favorable momentum for consumption and investment,” said Padilla. Elections in the United States are another factor to consider in 2024, especially if Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party’s candidate and uses migration and trade as political themes. However, official candidates are yet to be confirmed, and Banorte does not consider a recession in the US as its baseline scenario, but rather a moderation of activity, which would affect Mexican performance, dependent on the US by about 58%. RAFAEL DE LA FUENTE: LOWER DYNAMISM, BUT NO COLLAPSE Rafael de la Fuente, Chief Economist for Latin America at UBS, mentioned that the Swiss lender is projecting growth of 2.2% for 2024, still discounting a recession in the United States. Without economic contraction north of the border, growth would rise to between 2.5% and 2.7%. He also noted that both private domestic consumption and investment will continue to be the two components that will drive domestic demand and overall economic performance in Latin America’s second-largest economy. De la Fuente expects a loss of dynamism in the external sector, which has already begun to be seen in some sectors of the Mexican economy, such as the non-automotive manufacturing sector. “While some growth drivers of 2023 may lose momentum in 2024, such as employment,” he doesn’t believe it will be a year of collapse. “He thinks it could be a year where growth remains solid, especially if there is no recession in the US, and the numbers are likely to be close to what the authorities suggest.” Despite the potential slowdown in the second half of 2024, the forecast of 2.2% for Mexico’s GDP is slightly higher than its historical average, indicating the strength of the Mexican economy in a scenario of a recession in the US halfway through the year. “De la Fuente believes that consumption will benefit from real wages gaining space,” mainly due to falling inflation and revisions in contractual wages following the minimum wage increase. Regarding investment, he said that private investment has gained momentum in non-residential construction, recognizing that part of the investment boom has a significant public component in the government’s mega-projects. “He added that while private investment might lose strength in the second half of 2024, it can be compensated by nearshoring.” Source: https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/what-to-expect-for-the-mexican-economy-in-2024-according-to-two-top-economic-forecasters/#:~:text=Mexico%20City%20%E2%80%94%20Mexico%20is%20poised,analysts%20said%20to%20Bloomberg%20L%C3%ADnea.

  • 10 ERRORES QUE COMETES EN LA CUESTA DE ENERO Y QUE ARRUINAN TUS FINANZAS ANUALES

    La cuesta de enero debería ser el primer gasto extraordinario que contemplar en cualquier presupuesto, todos los años llega en la misma fecha pero siempre son los mismos errores. ¿Por qué? La mayoría de la gente sigue sin contemplar el gasto excesivo de Navidad, los nuevos impuestos y leyes que entran en vigor a partir del 1 de enero, la situación económica del país o del sector en el que trabajan y, por ende, la deficiente planificación del presupuesto personal. Ahora bien, más allá de la cuesta de enero, aún hay una serie de errores comunes que lastran tus finanzas todo el año. Estos incluyen no revisar tus facturas de suministro o tener contratadas todas las plataformas de streaming cuando puedes pasar meses sin visitar varias de ellas. Estas son las 13 errores que deberías evitar si quieres que esta sea tu última cuesta de enero. 1. CONFIAR EN TU INTUICIÓN PARA LLEGAR A FIN DE MES No tener un registro de gastos te impide conocer cuánto gastas al mes realmente. Menos aún conocer en qué lo gastas. Tu banco puede ofrecerte una gráfica de ingresos y gastos, pero la mayoría de las veces no están bien categorizados y, cuando los revisas, ya no te acuerdas qué gasto corresponde a cada tienda. Necesitas un registro de gastos. De esta forma, podrás crear tus propias categorías de gastos y revisar en qué te estás dejando cientos de pesos sin darte cuenta. 2. EMPEZAR EL AÑO SIN UN PRESUPUESTO Con el registro de gastos podrás adelantarte a qué necesitas cada mes y a recortar los gastos que te están impidiendo ahorrar. No todos los meses tienes los mismos desembolsos. Unos tienes cumpleaños, en otros viajes o días festivos como Navidades. Cuando ya sepas en qué gastas tu dinero, elabora un presupuesto con una plantilla de Excel gratuita para que ningún gasto te tome por sorpresa y puedas construir tu ahorro de emergencias. Aquí tienes una plantilla de Google Sheet para hacer el registro de gastos y el presupuesto a la vez. 3. NO INCLUIR LA CUESTA DE ENERO Y LOS GASTOS PERIÓDICOS EN TU PRESUPUESTO Con un presupuesto, la cuesta de enero debería estar contemplada en tu planificación de gastos, pero suele ser un error bastante común no contemplarla. Asimismo, deberías tener especial cuidado con los gastos que se repiten de forma anual. Los seguros, los impuestos o los abonos del gimnasio, por ejemplo. Al final, no puedes (ni tampoco es necesario) ver detalladamente en qué se te va cada céntimo. Pero hay gastos que, como la cuesta, no deberías pasar por alto ya que pueden hacer mucho daño en tu planificación. 4. GASTOS HORMIGA En enero tienes que esforzarte más de lo normal para no gastar en cosas innecesarias, sobre todo con las rebajas de invierno a la vuelta de la esquina. Aprovecha esta necesidad para recortar gastos hormiga como el café del mediodía, las plataformas de streaming que nunca utilizas o los malos vicios. 5. SER DEMASIADO AMBICIOSO CON TUS PROPÓSITOS DE AÑO NUEVO Has de tener cuidado con los propósitos de año nuevo: tienes que comprometerte con, al menos, uno. Pero, lo primero, es que no hagan vacíen tus bolsillos. No te cases con una cuota anual del gimnasio si es la primera vez que pisas uno, por ejemplo. Lo mismo para cualquier otro nuevo hobby o reto que te propongas que implique un desembolso significativo de dinero. 6. ENDEUDARTE PARA VIVIR ENCIMA DE TUS POSIBILIDADES Si incluyendo la cuesta de enero en tu presupuesto, sigues necesitando más dinero, tienes que revisar tu presupuesto y plantearte un serio recorte de gastos. Mientras construyes tu ahorro de emergencia y buscas cómo aumentar tus ingresos, no deberías vivir en una casa que cuesta el doble de lo que puedes pagar, desplazarte en coche para ir a comprar a una tienda a la que puedes ir a pie o gastar en ropa porque es está de rebajas. 7. SACAR DINERO DEL AHORRO DE EMERGENCIA PORQUE NO TIENES UN PLAN El ahorro de emergencia es para imprevistos muy urgentes. Comprarte el nuevo iPhone no entra en esta categoría. No llegar a final de mes por la cuesta de enero, tampoco es excusa. Este fondo de emergencia debe cubrir entre tres y nueve meses de gastos. 8. SEGUIR SIN UN HÁBITO DE AHORRO A estas alturas, no puedes seguir gastando todo lo que ganas. Necesitas tener ahorro para imprevistos, inversiones a futuro (como la educación, un coche, la AFORE…) y para tus gustos. Puede que nunca hayas escuchando hablar del presupuesto personal, pero no tienes excusa para no conocer sobre los viejos métodos de ahorro o los que se han puesto de moda en los últimos años, como el ahorro progresivo o el preahorro. 9. NO ENTERARTE DE QUÉ COSAS CAMBIAN ESTE AÑO QUE AFECTAN A TU BOLSILLO Cada año entran en vigor cambios que afectan a tu bolsillo o a tus posesiones. No siempre tienen por qué afectarte, pero sólo hay una forma de saberlo: informándote. Algunos de los cambios más conocidos son el precio de ciertos alimentos, los impuestos, las tarifas de servicios o el transporte público. 10. NO PLANIFICAR LA DECLARACIÓN DE IMPUESTOS Cuando menos te lo esperes, es abril y la declaración de impuestos empieza a llamar a tu puerta. El final del año o el inicio del siguiente es un buen momento para poner en orden las cuentas, las inversiones o las posibles deducciones. Fuente: https://businessinsider.mx/errores-de-la-cuesta-de-enero-arruinan-finanzas-anuales/

  • Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024

    Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead. For now, it looks like inflation will return to normal without a recession. We expect inflation’s effect to fade through the end of 2023 and into 2024 after it reached its highest level in over 40 years in 2022. In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that the drop in inflation is driven principally by the unwinding of price spikes owing to supply chain resolutions, along with a moderated pace of economic growth resulting from the Federal Reserve’s tightening. We expect inflation to average 1.8% from 2024 to 2027—undershooting the Fed’s 2% inflation target. But if inflation proves stickier than expected, the Fed stands ready to induce a recession to bring inflation down to 2%. PCE Inflation (%) Data as of Oct 9, 2023 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar Headline Inflation Has Plunged Since Mid-2022 Personal Consumption Expenditures Index inflation,which is our (and the Fed’s) preferred inflation measure, has fallen from a peak of 7.0% year-over-year in June 2022 to an estimated 3.3% as of July 2023. Consumer Price Index inflation, which uses a narrower definition of household consumer expenditures, has fallen even more dramatically year over year. It had peaked at higher rates owing to a higher weighting in energy. The decline in core inflation has been less impressive, but that’s starting to change. Inflation Measures, % Growth Year Over Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Categories That Have Played an Outsize Role in Excess Inflation The postpandemic jump in inflation began with only a handful of spending categories. When excess inflation (the difference from where inflation stood before the pandemic) was at its highest in the second quarter of 2022, the inflation rate was 6.8%. Durable goods, energy, and food at home accounted for 70% of that excess inflation, despite being only 20% of total consumption. Since then, inflation has spread to several other categories. These other categories, which include housing, vehicles, and more, now account for about half of excess inflation. Still, the partial deflation in these categories has helped slow the overall inflation rate substantially. And, with prices in these categories still way above their prepandemic trends, there’s room for much more deflation in coming years. PCE Excess Inflation by Category % contribution to cumulative excess inflation vs. fourth-quarter 2019. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Where We Expect Inflation to Fall the Most Over 2023-27 Given the role of industry-specific supply shocks in driving inflation, we take a bottom-up approach to forecasting inflation for the next five years. That is, we start by examining the underlying components and work toward macro trends. Here’s where we expect the greatest drop in inflation (and sometimes outright deflation) between 2023 and 2027: Durables: Major supply constraints are lifting. In particular, the semiconductor market is likely to flip from shortage to glut over the next few years. The normalization of spending patterns (shifting back to services) is also easing pricing pressure on goods. We expect about one third of the excess inflation in durables to unwind by 2027. Food and energy: We expect prices to subside as the industry adjusts to disruption from factors such as the Ukraine war, and they’re already starting to fall due to broad supply chain relief. Housing: Housinginflation has accelerated markedly over the past year, but we don’t expect this to last. It’s already starting to fall in response to moderating rents. In all other components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, we expect moderate wage growth and the absence of any long-lasting supply disruptions to keep inflation at restrained levels. And the economy growing well below potential through 2024 will cause widespread deflationary pressure. PCE Inflation Forecast: Key Components (% Growth) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Morningstar. Supply Chain Healing Will Bring Goods Prices Down Numerous production and logistical disruptions have contributed to inflation in durables and other parts of the economy. But supply chains are healing as demand normalizes and capacity catches up: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is even showing looser supply chain conditions than before the pandemic. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (New York Fed) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. There’s more help on the way. One indicator on the logistics side is that there are enough container ships set to be delivered over the next several years to expand the current fleet by 30%. And manufacturing capacity is expanding in the United States and other major economies, such as China. Other key takeaways about supply chains include: Supply chain improvement won’t be fully reflected in lower prices right away, just as core goods prices didn’t peak until about a year after supply chain paralysis set in. But in addition to moderating prices for consumer goods, we’re already seeing producer prices upstream of consumer prices starting to deflate. Transport costs are falling sharply owing to lower fuel prices and a burgeoning logistics glut. Retailers’ gross margins are still quite high, but competitive pressures should bring them back down to size over the next several years. Housing Market Inflation in 2023 and Beyond Because price indexes capture the cost of living, and most people don’t sign a new lease or buy a new house every year, it takes time for housing prices in price indexes to capture changing market conditions. For this reason, CPI inflation is still running fairly hot owing to the accumulated runup in market rents since 2021. That said, here’s where the housing market currently stands: Market rents are now decelerating sharply, in response to falling housing demand. Rent growth fell to only about 3% year over year as of July 2023, from about 15% as of May 2022. This is causing CPI shelter to finally decelerate, which we expect to persist over the next year until housing inflation returns to normal. After 2023, we expect home prices to remain flat. We expect weak home demand will continue to weigh on housing prices and eventually converge most of the way back to the prepandemic trend. This will return the CPI shelter index to normal. Lower housing prices will also aid in returning housing affordability to more reasonable levels. From a cost perspective, lower home prices should become more palatable for builders as easing supply constraints reduce the cost of construction inputs. A Soft Landing Is Our Base Case Our base case is that inflation will return to normal in 2024, even as real gross domestic product growth remains positive in year-over-year terms—a “soft landing.” Over the past year, inflation has fallen around 300 basis points even as real GDP growth has accelerated. That performance has defied the predictions of those in the stagflation camp, who thought that a deep economic slump would be needed to root out entrenched inflation. Instead, the inflation-GDP trade-off has been very kind, thanks to the loosening of supply constraints, as we had long anticipated. Still, we’ve been surprised by the resiliency of economic growth in the face of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. This means the “overheating” scenario has increased in probability, where the economy grows at a rollicking pace and inflation remains in the 3%-4% range. We still think that the Fed’s rate hikes executed thus far will eventually slow GDP growth sufficiently and that inflation will drop to 2% (while avoiding an outright recession). The effects of these rate hikes are still accumulating throughout the economy as borrowers roll over to higher interest rates and exhaust their financial cushions. Source: https://www.morningstar.com/economy/why-we-expect-inflation-fall-2024

  • The global economy will perform better than many expect in 2024

    That outlook is based on our economists’ prediction for strong income growth (amid cooling inflation and a robust job market), their expectation that rate hikes have already delivered their biggest hits to GDP growth, and their view that manufacturing will recover. Central banks, meanwhile, will have room to reduce interest rates if they’re concerned about the economy slowing. “This is an important insurance policy against a recession,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius writes in the team’s report titled Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part Is Over. Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.6% next year on an annual average basis, compared with the 2.1% consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In fact, Goldman Sachs Research’s forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 are more optimistic than the consensus for eight of the world’s nine largest economies, as of Nov. 8, 2023. And notably, our economists expect US growth to outpace its developed market peers again. The global economy fared better than many economists expected in 2023 Goldman Sachs Research was also optimistic about the global economy in 2023 — and the results have exceeded even our own economists’ expectations. Solid GDP growth has translated into more-than-solid labor market performance. The unemployment rate across all the economies covered by our analysts (and with high-quality labor market data) now stands about 0.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. Importantly, this improvement is visible even in some key economies that have seen very low real GDP growth, such as the Euro area. Will inflation continue to cool in 2024? Importantly, GDP growth and employment have been surprisingly buoyant among economies that experienced a large and unwanted inflation surge in 2021-2022. (Policymakers in Japan, by contrast, wanted inflation.) And inflation is now cooling across G10 and emerging market economies. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Hatzius writes. The supply and demand of goods have grown more balanced, and the impact of this on core goods disinflation is still unfolding and is forecast to continue through most of 2024. Shelter inflation is expected to have considerably further to fall. Most crucially, the supply-demand balance in the labor market continues to improve. Goldman Sachs Research’s jobs-workers gap — measured as job openings minus unemployed workers — is trending down everywhere. The adjustment has so far occurred almost entirely in a benign fashion, as job openings have declined without a rise in unemployment. Our economists forecast this year’s decline in inflation to continue in 2024: sequential core inflation is predicted to fall from 3% now to an average 2-2.5% range across the G10 (excluding Japan). “That would be broadly consistent with the inflation targets of most developed market central banks by the end of 2024,” Hatzius writes. “If anything, we think that the risks to the achievement of target-consistent inflation are on the earlier side.” Many big economies will avoid recession in 2024 Over the past year, our economists have been relatively optimistic that major economies can avoid a recession. In the team’s report, they reaffirm their longstanding view that the probability of a US recession is much lower than commonly appreciated — at just 15% over the next 12 months. There are four main reasons Goldman Sachs Research is optimistic about growth next year. Our economists have a positive outlook for real disposable income growth at a time of much lower headline inflation and still-strong labor markets. While they predict US real income growth will slow from its very strong 2023 pace, they think it will still be enough to support consumption and GDP growth of at least 2%. Meanwhile, both the Euro area and the UK are expected to have a meaningful acceleration in real income growth — to around 2% by end-2024 — as the gas shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fades. Rate hikes and fiscal policy will continue to weigh on growth across the G10 economies, but the worst of that drag has already happened, Hatzius writes. The team’s research shows that the maximum impact of monetary tightening on the growth rate (as opposed to level) of GDP occurs with a short lag of about two quarters. “We therefore expect a smaller drag from tighter financial conditions in 2024 than in 2023, even after factoring in the recent increase in long-term interest rates,” Hatzius writes. Industrial activity has been weak amid a rebalancing of spending back towards services from goods, the European energy crisis, an inventory cycle that had to correct for overbuilding in 2022, and a weaker-than-expected rebound in Chinese manufacturing. Most of these headwinds are forecast to fade this year, and manufacturing is expected to recover toward longer-term trend levels. The “most novel reason” to be optimistic about GDP growth is that central banks don’t need a recession to bring inflation down, and will therefore try hard to avoid one, Hatzius writes. Our economists’ analysis of past hiking cycles shows that major central banks are twice as likely to cut rates when there’s a risk to growth once inflation has normalized to sub-3% rates (relative to when inflation is above 5%). Will central banks cut interest rates next year? Policymakers in developed markets are unlikely to cut interest rates before the second half of 2024 unless economic growth proves weaker than anticipated, according to Goldman Sachs Research. In part, that view is based on our economists’ baseline forecasts, which expect inflation to remain modestly above target, unemployment rates to stay below their long-run levels, and GDP to grow roughly at trend pace in 2024. In emerging markets, policy cuts are expected to be announced sooner. Japan stands apart because its inflation pickup was largely desired. After three decades of anemic price pressures or outright deflation, wage increases in 2023 signalled that the Bank of Japan was moving towards its goal of establishing a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. The BoJ is therefore poised to move toward an exit from its policy of yield curve control in April 2024, although a formal abandonment of these measures is unlikely until October 2024, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Even so, Japanese inflation should remain far below the levels experienced by its G10 peers during this cycle. China also stands apart when it comes to policy stimulus, as authorities have sought to counteract sluggish economic growth. Our economists expect China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in 2024 as the boost from post-covid reopening fades, but partly offset by a slightly smaller housing drag, a modest rebound in global trade, and additional policy easing. The world’s second-largest economy still has challenges, however. Its property downturn is likely to endure, and there is still a risk that the resulting pessimism becomes entrenched. The country’s ongoing demographic deterioration and persistently shrinking working-age population will require it to reinvent its growth model. A modest cyclical rebound in exports is unlikely to reverse the ongoing diversification of global value chains away from China. “Near-term growth in China should benefit from further policy stimulus, but China’s multi-year slowdown will likely continue,” Hatzius writes. Source: https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-global-economy-will-perform-better-than-many-expect-in-2024.html#:~:text=,as%20it%20did%20in%202023

  • Seis consejos para cuidar sus finanzas personales en la temporada de fin de año

    La temporada de fin de año es una de las de mayor gasto para los hogares, teniendo en cuenta que es época de reuniones en familia, aguinaldos, Navidad y Año Nuevo. Y aunque estas fechas están rodeadas de un fuerte significado emocional, es importante que las familias latinoamericanas planifiquen con inteligencia sus finanzas, especialmente en meses en los que las tasas de interés siguen altas y la inflación apenas comienza a retroceder en la mayoría de países. Estos son los 6 consejos para controlar las finanzas en el fin de año1. Elaborar un presupuesto: un presupuesto se basa en los ingresos seguros de la persona cada mes, y a partir de allí descontar los gastos fijos, el dinero destinado al ahorro y al pago de deudas, y el remanente que queda para los demás gastos. Estos últimos son los recursos que se pueden usar para las festividades, dijo la Asociación de Bancos Privados del Ecuador (Asobanca), en uno de sus contenidos. 2. Estar alerta con los gastos hormiga: este tipo de gastos, que parecen pequeños, siempre se acumulan. “Es época de celebración, por ende, puede que desees darte un par de gustos cuyos montos no son considerables. No obstante, si comienzas a pedir mucho de comida a domicilio, comprar decoraciones que te encuentras ocasionalmente, o haces clic en los anuncios de productos y suscripciones interesantes, poco a poco irás gastando tu presupuesto”, explicó el BBVA. 3. Aprovechar las ofertas: las últimas semanas de noviembre estarán marcadas por días de promociones como el ‘Black friday’, ‘Cyber monday’ y por otros días des ‘grandes descuentos’, que sirven para adelantar algunas compras y ahorrar antes de las fechas especiales de diciembre. 4. Usar con cuidado la tarjeta de crédito: esta tarjeta no es “dinero adicional en tu cuenta”, precisa Asobanca. La tarjeta de crédito es una línea que otorga un préstamo y por ello se debe ser responsable con su uso. “Al usar tu tarjeta piensa en la vida útil de las cosas: si lo que vas a pagar con tarjeta tiene una vida útil corta, entonces usa el pago corriente; en cambio, si lo que vas a comprar tiene una vida útil larga, puedes diferirlo en cuotas”. 5. No dejar para último momento: parte de gastar bien el dinero es la planeación. Desde noviembre se pueden realizar los presupuestos de diciembre, especialmente el dinero para ahorrar y que servirá para amortiguar las deudas en enero. 6. Regalos digitales: para no invertir altos montos en juguetería o dispositivos electrónicos, el BBVA recomienda invertir en tarjetas de regalo vendidas por librerías o consolas de videojuegos, suscripciones a servicios de lectura o aplicaciones útiles, y reducir los dineros invertidos en regalos. ¿Cómo hacer del ahorro un hábito? Aunque ahorrar es un reto para muchas personas, especialmente en épocas de alta inflación, esta es una técnica que sirve para conseguir estabilidad económica, alcanzar metas financieras y estar preparado para enfrentar emergencias económicas. Mibanco, empresa del Grupo Credicorp, compartió estos cinco consejos para crear el hábito de ahorrar: Plan de ahorros: la persistencia y la disciplina son fundamentales para establecer un hábito de ahorro duradero, para esto se debe crear un plan de ahorro, para planificar cuándo y cuánto se ahorrará en cada mes. Metas financieras: definir metas le ayudará a tener claridad sobre la razón detrás del ahorro y la cantidad necesaria. Además, contribuirá a mantener el autocontrol para no gastar en cosas innecesarias. Presupuesto mensual: llevar una lista y un registro detallado de los gastos durante el mes, proporcionará una visión más clara de los gastos y ayudará a identificar áreas donde se puede reducir o eliminar aquellos que son innecesarios. Para esto se debe hacer un seguimiento exhaustivo de las cuentas mensuales y compras adicionales. Pago de deudas: pagar las deudas lo más pronto posible, no solo ayudará a reducir gastos, sino que también permitirá evitar que los intereses de ciertos créditos consuman una parte significativa de los ingresos, lo que hace aún más difícil ahorrar. Esto podrá determinar cuánto dinero se dispone al final de cada mes y cuánto se debe destinar a ahorrar. Establecer un porcentaje ahorro: determinar un porcentaje de los ingresos que se desea ahorrar es esencial, ya que se obliga a destinar una parte de las entradas a una parte de los ahorros de manera consistente. Los expertos sugieren que sea el 10%; sin embargo, este porcentaje puede variar y ser flexible, lo que permite ajustarlo según las necesidades y metas financieras del mes. fuente: https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2023/11/12/seis-consejos-para-cuidar-sus-finanzas-personales-en-la-temporada-de-fin-de-ano/

  • Global economic outlook: how hard will we land?

    Key findings 1.     Global growth has so far remained relatively resilient through an extreme surge in inflation paired with one of the sharpest monetary tightening cycles in generations. This suggests that both contracting supply and expanding demand contributed to rising prices and raises a key question for the coming 12 months: have central banks really managed a soft landing of the global economy in such a complex situation? Or is the world facing a hard landing because central banks overreacted to mostly supply-driven inflation, or because they still underestimate the shift in inflation dynamics and will have to go even further to break them? 2.     A soft landing is possible. Global inflation has fallen from more than 9% in 2022 to below 6%. Energy disinflation may have run its course, and food inflation is falling. Remaining pandemic-era supply disruptions have faded, suggesting consumer goods will get cheaper. Once wages have adjusted to higher prices, services inflation should also fall. In Europe – but not in the US – we expect inflation to fall below 2% in the second half of 2024. 3.     Lower inflation, higher growth? Supply-driven inflation lowers growth, so as it reverses it should stabilise demand while at the same time allowing central banks to cut interest rates. This makes a soft landing more likely, particularly in some emerging markets in Asia and South America, where growth prospects have brightened and central banks are already cutting rates. But the path to a soft landing looks increasingly narrow – especially in the US and Europe. 4.     Has the US battle against inflation only just begun? In the US, inflation is expected to stay above 2% beyond 2024. Wage growth is not normalising, and growth and the housing market are picking up despite high interest rates. The risk that the Fed has not yet done enough is significant. While the bar to significant further rate hikes is high, rates may have to stay high for longer to achieve the necessary cooling of growth and inflation. 5.     Even in weak-growth Europe, inflation may not return to target quickly. Wage growth is set to remain high and services inflation usually moves in lockstep in both the Euro Area and the US. Wage growth would have to be absorbed by falling profit margins or by rising productivity growth. However, neither has been the norm in recent decades. 6.     Despite strong wage growth and fading inflation, we expect the Euro Area economy to shrink for the next three quarters. Weak external demand, labour shortages, uncompetitive energy prices and the housing market are expected to weigh on growth before the full extent of the policy tightening has taken effect. In contrast to the US, there is a significant risk that the European Central Bank has already overtightened. If the Euro Area falls into a protracted recession, and deflationary tendencies return, the ECB would need to react quickly and decisively to avoid returning to the effective lower bound. 7.     Global recession? Excluding China, we are now forecasting world GDP growth of less than 1% in 2024, fulfilling some definitions of a global recession. And for China we are not optimistic either. China’s economy is struggling to gain momentum as the global manufacturing cycle weighs and structural weaknesses such as demographics and high debt combine with hesitant stimulus. 8.     Global interest rates are most likely to fall. Rate hike cycles are coming to an end at 4% in the Euro Area, just over 5% in the UK and just under 6% in the US. Weak growth makes rate cuts most likely from Q2 2024, especially in Europe. In the US, the risks are skewed towards higher rates for longer, however. 1.1 Introduction Even though global inflation rates have come down significantly since 2022, the fight against inflation continues to dominate the global economic policy agenda. At the time of the 2022 Green Budget, in October 2022, world inflation peaked at 9.3% year-on-year, more than three times higher than the pre-pandemic norm of around 3% (see Figure 1.1). By June 2023, it had fallen halfway back to the norm, and stood at just under 6%. Both the rise and decline were fairly uniform across advanced economies and emerging markets. In the former, inflation peaked in October 2022 at 8% and fell to just over 4% in June, 2 percentage points (ppt) above ‘normal’. In emerging economies, inflation peaked at 11.3% in September 2022 and was by June back down to just under 8%, 4ppt above the norm of 4%. Even outliers such as Turkey have seen year-on-year inflation halve, from 80% to 40% over the same period. Figure 1.1. World composite inflation (year-on-year %) Source: Haver Analytics and Citi Research. As we highlighted in chapter 1 of last year’s Green Budget, the major drivers of the inflation surge – and subsequent reversal – were widespread supply-side factors, such as pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, labour force distortions, and more recently the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for energy and food prices. This explains the strong global co-movement of inflation rates. Less clear is the role of demand. During the pandemic, many governments generously maintained or even increased corporate and household incomes, for example by sending out checks (US) or allowing employers to put employees on furlough (Europe), funded by aggressive government borrowing. This was facilitated by unprecedented central bank easing, especially asset purchases, and did not just allow households in some parts of the world to maintain large parts of spending (Europe) or even increase it (US) during the pandemic, but also to save large amounts and maintain spending beyond the end of the pandemic. The high inflation rates caused by this combination of a series of large negative supply shocks and positive demand shocks risked becoming so persistent that they would dislodge inflation expectations and thus perpetuate high inflation. Central banks therefore stepped in to anchor expectations, break the inflation surge and swiftly return inflation to target. With inflation rates now well into their decline in most parts of the world, we and most forecasters see global central bank interest rates close to the peak or even starting to reverse. Global growth has remained resilient through the extreme surge in inflation paired with one of the sharpest monetary tightening cycles in generations, which suggests that both supply and demand contributed to rising prices. That raises the key question for the coming 12 months: have central banks really managed a soft landing of the global economy in such a complex situation? Or is the world facing a hard landing because central banks overreacted to mostly supply-driven inflation, and exaggerated concerns that monetary policymakers could lose credibility and inflation expectations could rise? Or do central banks still underestimate the shift in inflation dynamics, and will they therefore have to tighten even further to break them? We begin in Section 1.2 by discussing how the easing of supply constraints, and the resilience of demand, point to a possible ‘soft landing’. We then consider, in Section 1.3, the trends in the labour market and elsewhere which point to the risk of inflation (and interest rates) staying higher for longer. In Section 1.4, we consider the possibility that central banks have already gone too far. In Section 1.5, we examine how the outlook varies across regions, before finally presenting Citi’s latest forecasts (Section 1.6) and concluding (Section 1.7). 1.2 Can we manage a soft landing? Over the past three years, the world experienced a series of highly unusual supply disruptions and thus cost shocks. Pandemic-induced supply shocks First were the shocks triggered by the public health policy reaction to the pandemic, which largely affected goods inflation and have largely faded by now: The global shipping market has relaxed, with key freight cost indices well down on post-pandemic peaks and in some cases below pre-pandemic levels. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures daily rates of dry bulk carrier ships, is averaging 1142 so far this year, down 75% from the 2022 peak and actually 15% below the 2018–19 average. The Harper Petersen Index, which measures weekly container vessel spot chart rates, has averaged 1156 so far this year, which is still double the pre-pandemic average, but also down 75% from the 2022 peak, despite issues around the Panama Canal, for example Supplier lead times are shortening substantially. In the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, for example, supplier lead times were lengthening at their strongest pace since the 1970s in 2021, but are now shortening at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis in 2009. Where inventories of finished goods were depleted in 2021, now firms are reporting that they have too much in stock. In Germany’s widely followed ifo manufacturing survey, for example, firms are now reporting inventories nearly as full relative to demand as they were during the first lockdown in 2020. In summary, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has dropped from more than four standard deviations above its post-1997 average in late 2021 to a trough of one-and-a-half standard deviations below it this year (Figure 1.2). This has triggered a disinflation process in core goods, though one which is far from complete (also shown in Figure 1.2). Figure 1.2. Global supply chain pressures (standard deviation from mean) and advanced economy core goods CPI inflation (year-on-year %) Note: AE = advanced economy and represents a weighted average of US, Euro Area, Japan and UK non-energy industrial goods inflation.  Source: New York Fed, Haver Analytics and Citi Research. **If you want to read the complete article, click here to go to the original source: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/global-economic-outlook-how-hard-will-we-land

  • Este Buen Fin, no hagas MAL USO de los meses sin intereses

    Las promociones a meses sin intereses, disponibles tanto en tarjetas de crédito bancarias como no bancarias, permiten a los consumidores dividir el costo de una compra de múltiples mensualidades BUEN FIN Se acerca el Buen Fin, una de las temporadas más esperadas por los amantes de las compras , pues existe una gran variedad de ofertas y promociones a meses sin intereses por lo que puede ser abrumadora. Ante esto, la Comisión Nacional para la Protección y Defensa de los Usuarios de Servicios Financieros (Condusef), ha compartido a los usuarios sobre la importancia de entender cómo funcionan estas promociones para evitar posibles problemas en tus finanzas personales. Las promociones a meses sin intereses, disponibles tanto en tarjetas de crédito bancarias como no bancarias, permiten a los consumidores dividir el costo de una compra de múltiples mensualidades. Esto permitirá que los pagos parezcan pequeños y asequibles a primera vista . Sin embargo, es fundamental destacar que las mensualidades deben pagarse además del pago mínimo requerido en tu crédito revolvente. De lo contrario, se acumularán intereses sobre el saldo no cubierto. La Condusef ofrece valiosos consejos para evitar caer en trampas financieras durante el Buen Fin: 1. Razona tu compra: Antes de adquirir un producto en oferta, pregúntate si realmente lo necesitas o si solo lo compras debido a la promoción. Es esencial recordar que, al optar por meses sin intereses, estás comprometiendo tus ingresos futuros. 2. Analiza tu capacidad de pago: Asegúrate de que puedes cubrir las mensualidades sin poner en riesgo tu capacidad financiera. Conoce tus ingresos y gastos para tomar decisiones informadas. 3. Compara precios: La comparación de precios es clave. Diferentes establecimientos pueden ofrecer descuentos variados para el mismo producto, lo que te permite tomar una decisión más acertada en cuanto a la promoción que mejor se adapte a tu presupuesto. 4. Compra bienes duraderos: Prioriza la adquisición de productos que tengan una vida útil prolongada y beneficios a largo plazo, como electrodomésticos y computadoras. Evita utilizar meses sin intereses para compras menores o gastos recurrentes que se acumulan mes tras mes. 5. Paga a tiempo: El incumplimiento en el pago de las mensualidades puede acarrear intereses adicionales que deberás asumir. Es fundamental mantener un registro de las fechas de vencimiento y cumplir con tus pagos puntualmente. 6. Verifca la promoción: Al momento de realizar la compra, cerciórate de que la cantidad que figura en el voucher sea la correcta y coincida con la copia que te entrega el comercio. Además, asegúrate de que se especifique que la compra se realizó a meses sin intereses. 7. Liquida tu adeudo antes del plazo: En caso de que dispongas de recursos adicionales, considera liquidar el monto restante de la promoción antes del plazo establecido. Algunos bancos requieren que notifiques tu intención de pagar de forma anticipada para evitar que sigan cobrándote las mensualidades.23/10/23, 12:56 Este Buen Fin, no hagas MAL USO de los meses sin intereses Este Buen Fin, no hagas MAL USO de los meses sin intereses, asimismo, durante el Buen Fin, la clave para sacar el máximo provecho de las promociones a meses sin intereses sin poner en riesgo tus finanzas personales radica en la planificación, el autocontrol y la toma de decisiones informadas. La Condusef destaca la importancia de ser un consumidor responsable y de estar consciente de tus capacidades financieras antes de comprometerte con compras a crédito a largo plazo. Fuente: https://www.debate.com.mx/economia/Este-Buen-Fin-no-hagas-MAL-USO-de-los-meses-sin-intereses-20231022-0178.html

  • How the Israel-Hamas war could affect the world economy and worsen global trade tensions

    Global geopolitical tensions often play a pivotal role in shaping people’s perceptions of economic growth. Research shows concern about such issues can cause people and businesses to become more cautious about spending and investing, which can ultimately lead to economic recession. The recent escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is no different. Investors around the world are worried about the repercussions of this war – particularly in light of an already bleak picture for global economic growth. Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel is the latest chapter of a cycle of violence that has been going on in this region for decades and, sadly, seems to have no end in sight. While the reasons behind these events are complex, the conflict’s potential immediate and long-term economic ramifications are easier to grasp. After all, if the Russia-Ukraine war has taught us one thing, it’s that we should be mindful of the intricate interdependencies that shape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. How conflicts can affect the economy Internal and inter-state conflicts often have a significant effect on stock market indices, exchange rates, and commodity prices – sometimes even sending prices higher in the lead-up to hostilities. The longer-term economic impact is typically more complicated to assess, however. The lasting effects of even seemingly dramatic events on investor behaviour can be hard to predict. Conflicts in the Middle East tend to lead to spikes in oil prices – think of the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, and the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91. Since the region accounts for nearly a third of global oil supply, any instability can create market uncertainty based on concerns about interruptions to global oil supply. This uncertainty is reflected in the risk premium in oil markets. This is the price paid for oil traded ahead of time in the futures markets versus the real-time price of oil. It reflects the profits that speculators expect to receive from buying and selling oil during a time of conflict, as well as the hedging needs of businesses that produce and consume oil and their concerns about supply and demand. And so, the effect of the latest Israel-Hamas conflict on global financial markets will depend on the involvement of other major regional powers. If the conflict remains between Israel and Hamas, the effect will probably be limited and arguably exclusive to countries with direct trade exposure to Israel or Palestine. But if the conflict spreads to major oil-producing nations in the region such as Iran, the global economy could face severe repercussions as energy costs for businesses and households could spike if supply is interrupted. Higher energy prices would hamper central banks’ efforts to tame inflation pressures in most advanced and emerging economies. If this leads to a “higher for longer” monetary policy that keeps interest rates elevated, it would push up the cost of borrowing and refinancing by governments, companies and people. History can offer some insights into how the impact on the global economy could unfold under these different scenarios. For instance, the 50-day war between Israel and Hamas in 2014, which killed 2,200 people, mostly civilians, had no significant effect on the global economy or financial markets. Yet, when Israel and Hezbollah clashed in Lebanon in 2006, oil prices surged globally due to fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. What to expect this time Unfortunately, there is another factor to consider at the moment. The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has happened alongside the realignment of various global alliances. This slow creep of “deglobalisation” can be seen in a shift in trade policies in recent years. Countries such as the US and UK are relocating economic activity including sourcing or manufacturing products from different countries out of concern about relying on suppliers in potentially hostile regions, as well as the impact of imports from low-wage countries on struggling local labour markets At the moment, these shifts can also be seen in the reactions to the Hamas attack on Israel. A two-state solution) to the Israel/Palestine conflict was initially laid out by the United Nations in 1947 and reaffirmed in 1974, with almost unanimous support around the world. But there has been some nuance in the international reactions to the attack. With most western countries quickly voicing support for Israel’s right to defend itself, while countries like China and Russia called for a ceasefire without taking a stance on Hamas. This suggests that the issue of Israel-Palestine could tie in with the broader trend towards the new geopolitical divisions that were already starting to emerge before Hamas’s attack. A prolonged conflict between Israel and Palestine, especially with the involvement of major regional powers, could further accelerate this global realignment and have detrimental consequences for global economic growth. Under these circumstances, investors are already bracing for increased financial volatility across the board – from stocks and government bonds to commodity markets. So-called safe-haven assets like gold are typically used as protection against overwhelming economic uncertainty. The price of gold has shot up following the latest escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Financial markets will continue to monitor the conflict between Israel and Hamas for signs of escalation. Anything that pushes oil prices up further will reignite fears of higher inflation. Unfortunately, this is happening just as many countries were starting to see inflation slow again after two years of persistently high consumer prices. Source: https://theconversation.com/how-the-israel-hamas-war-could-affect-the-world-economy-and-worsen-global-trade-tensions-215930

bottom of page