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Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead. For now, it looks like inflation will return to normal without a recession. We expect inflation’s effect to fade through the end of 2023 and into 2024 after it reached its highest level in over 40 years in 2022. In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that the drop in inflation is driven principally by the unwinding of price spikes owing to supply chain resolutions, along with a moderated pace of economic growth resulting from the Federal Reserve’s tightening. We expect inflation to average 1.8% from 2024 to 2027—undershooting the Fed’s 2% inflation target. But if inflation proves stickier than expected, the Fed stands ready to induce a recession to bring inflation down to 2%. PCE Inflation (%) Data as of Oct 9, 2023 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar Headline Inflation Has Plunged Since Mid-2022 Personal Consumption Expenditures Index inflation,which is our (and the Fed’s) preferred inflation measure, has fallen from a peak of 7.0% year-over-year in June 2022 to an estimated 3.3% as of July 2023. Consumer Price Index inflation, which uses a narrower definition of household consumer expenditures, has fallen even more dramatically year over year. It had peaked at higher rates owing to a higher weighting in energy. The decline in core inflation has been less impressive, but that’s starting to change. Inflation Measures, % Growth Year Over Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Categories That Have Played an Outsize Role in Excess Inflation The postpandemic jump in inflation began with only a handful of spending categories. When excess inflation (the difference from where inflation stood before the pandemic) was at its highest in the second quarter of 2022, the inflation rate was 6.8%. Durable goods, energy, and food at home accounted for 70% of that excess inflation, despite being only 20% of total consumption. Since then, inflation has spread to several other categories. These other categories, which include housing, vehicles, and more, now account for about half of excess inflation. Still, the partial deflation in these categories has helped slow the overall inflation rate substantially. And, with prices in these categories still way above their prepandemic trends, there’s room for much more deflation in coming years. PCE Excess Inflation by Category % contribution to cumulative excess inflation vs. fourth-quarter 2019. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Where We Expect Inflation to Fall the Most Over 2023-27 Given the role of industry-specific supply shocks in driving inflation, we take a bottom-up approach to forecasting inflation for the next five years. That is, we start by examining the underlying components and work toward macro trends. Here’s where we expect the greatest drop in inflation (and sometimes outright deflation) between 2023 and 2027: Durables: Major supply constraints are lifting. In particular, the semiconductor market is likely to flip from shortage to glut over the next few years. The normalization of spending patterns (shifting back to services) is also easing pricing pressure on goods. We expect about one third of the excess inflation in durables to unwind by 2027. Food and energy: We expect prices to subside as the industry adjusts to disruption from factors such as the Ukraine war, and they’re already starting to fall due to broad supply chain relief. Housing: Housinginflation has accelerated markedly over the past year, but we don’t expect this to last. It’s already starting to fall in response to moderating rents. In all other components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, we expect moderate wage growth and the absence of any long-lasting supply disruptions to keep inflation at restrained levels. And the economy growing well below potential through 2024 will cause widespread deflationary pressure. PCE Inflation Forecast: Key Components (% Growth) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Morningstar. Supply Chain Healing Will Bring Goods Prices Down Numerous production and logistical disruptions have contributed to inflation in durables and other parts of the economy. But supply chains are healing as demand normalizes and capacity catches up: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is even showing looser supply chain conditions than before the pandemic. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (New York Fed) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. There’s more help on the way. One indicator on the logistics side is that there are enough container ships set to be delivered over the next several years to expand the current fleet by 30%. And manufacturing capacity is expanding in the United States and other major economies, such as China. Other key takeaways about supply chains include: Supply chain improvement won’t be fully reflected in lower prices right away, just as core goods prices didn’t peak until about a year after supply chain paralysis set in. But in addition to moderating prices for consumer goods, we’re already seeing producer prices upstream of consumer prices starting to deflate. Transport costs are falling sharply owing to lower fuel prices and a burgeoning logistics glut. Retailers’ gross margins are still quite high, but competitive pressures should bring them back down to size over the next several years. Housing Market Inflation in 2023 and Beyond Because price indexes capture the cost of living, and most people don’t sign a new lease or buy a new house every year, it takes time for housing prices in price indexes to capture changing market conditions. For this reason, CPI inflation is still running fairly hot owing to the accumulated runup in market rents since 2021. That said, here’s where the housing market currently stands: Market rents are now decelerating sharply, in response to falling housing demand. Rent growth fell to only about 3% year over year as of July 2023, from about 15% as of May 2022. This is causing CPI shelter to finally decelerate, which we expect to persist over the next year until housing inflation returns to normal. After 2023, we expect home prices to remain flat. We expect weak home demand will continue to weigh on housing prices and eventually converge most of the way back to the prepandemic trend. This will return the CPI shelter index to normal. Lower housing prices will also aid in returning housing affordability to more reasonable levels. From a cost perspective, lower home prices should become more palatable for builders as easing supply constraints reduce the cost of construction inputs. A Soft Landing Is Our Base Case Our base case is that inflation will return to normal in 2024, even as real gross domestic product growth remains positive in year-over-year terms—a “soft landing.” Over the past year, inflation has fallen around 300 basis points even as real GDP growth has accelerated. That performance has defied the predictions of those in the stagflation camp, who thought that a deep economic slump would be needed to root out entrenched inflation. Instead, the inflation-GDP trade-off has been very kind, thanks to the loosening of supply constraints, as we had long anticipated. Still, we’ve been surprised by the resiliency of economic growth in the face of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. This means the “overheating” scenario has increased in probability, where the economy grows at a rollicking pace and inflation remains in the 3%-4% range. We still think that the Fed’s rate hikes executed thus far will eventually slow GDP growth sufficiently and that inflation will drop to 2% (while avoiding an outright recession). The effects of these rate hikes are still accumulating throughout the economy as borrowers roll over to higher interest rates and exhaust their financial cushions. Source: https://www.morningstar.com/economy/why-we-expect-inflation-fall-2024

That outlook is based on our economists’ prediction for strong income growth (amid cooling inflation and a robust job market), their expectation that rate hikes have already delivered their biggest hits to GDP growth, and their view that manufacturing will recover. Central banks, meanwhile, will have room to reduce interest rates if they’re concerned about the economy slowing. “This is an important insurance policy against a recession,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius writes in the team’s report titled Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part Is Over. Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.6% next year on an annual average basis, compared with the 2.1% consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In fact, Goldman Sachs Research’s forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 are more optimistic than the consensus for eight of the world’s nine largest economies, as of Nov. 8, 2023. And notably, our economists expect US growth to outpace its developed market peers again. The global economy fared better than many economists expected in 2023 Goldman Sachs Research was also optimistic about the global economy in 2023 — and the results have exceeded even our own economists’ expectations. Solid GDP growth has translated into more-than-solid labor market performance. The unemployment rate across all the economies covered by our analysts (and with high-quality labor market data) now stands about 0.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. Importantly, this improvement is visible even in some key economies that have seen very low real GDP growth, such as the Euro area. Will inflation continue to cool in 2024? Importantly, GDP growth and employment have been surprisingly buoyant among economies that experienced a large and unwanted inflation surge in 2021-2022. (Policymakers in Japan, by contrast, wanted inflation.) And inflation is now cooling across G10 and emerging market economies. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Hatzius writes. The supply and demand of goods have grown more balanced, and the impact of this on core goods disinflation is still unfolding and is forecast to continue through most of 2024. Shelter inflation is expected to have considerably further to fall. Most crucially, the supply-demand balance in the labor market continues to improve. Goldman Sachs Research’s jobs-workers gap — measured as job openings minus unemployed workers — is trending down everywhere. The adjustment has so far occurred almost entirely in a benign fashion, as job openings have declined without a rise in unemployment. Our economists forecast this year’s decline in inflation to continue in 2024: sequential core inflation is predicted to fall from 3% now to an average 2-2.5% range across the G10 (excluding Japan). “That would be broadly consistent with the inflation targets of most developed market central banks by the end of 2024,” Hatzius writes. “If anything, we think that the risks to the achievement of target-consistent inflation are on the earlier side.” Many big economies will avoid recession in 2024 Over the past year, our economists have been relatively optimistic that major economies can avoid a recession. In the team’s report, they reaffirm their longstanding view that the probability of a US recession is much lower than commonly appreciated — at just 15% over the next 12 months. There are four main reasons Goldman Sachs Research is optimistic about growth next year. Our economists have a positive outlook for real disposable income growth at a time of much lower headline inflation and still-strong labor markets. While they predict US real income growth will slow from its very strong 2023 pace, they think it will still be enough to support consumption and GDP growth of at least 2%. Meanwhile, both the Euro area and the UK are expected to have a meaningful acceleration in real income growth — to around 2% by end-2024 — as the gas shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fades. Rate hikes and fiscal policy will continue to weigh on growth across the G10 economies, but the worst of that drag has already happened, Hatzius writes. The team’s research shows that the maximum impact of monetary tightening on the growth rate (as opposed to level) of GDP occurs with a short lag of about two quarters. “We therefore expect a smaller drag from tighter financial conditions in 2024 than in 2023, even after factoring in the recent increase in long-term interest rates,” Hatzius writes. Industrial activity has been weak amid a rebalancing of spending back towards services from goods, the European energy crisis, an inventory cycle that had to correct for overbuilding in 2022, and a weaker-than-expected rebound in Chinese manufacturing. Most of these headwinds are forecast to fade this year, and manufacturing is expected to recover toward longer-term trend levels. The “most novel reason” to be optimistic about GDP growth is that central banks don’t need a recession to bring inflation down, and will therefore try hard to avoid one, Hatzius writes. Our economists’ analysis of past hiking cycles shows that major central banks are twice as likely to cut rates when there’s a risk to growth once inflation has normalized to sub-3% rates (relative to when inflation is above 5%). Will central banks cut interest rates next year? Policymakers in developed markets are unlikely to cut interest rates before the second half of 2024 unless economic growth proves weaker than anticipated, according to Goldman Sachs Research. In part, that view is based on our economists’ baseline forecasts, which expect inflation to remain modestly above target, unemployment rates to stay below their long-run levels, and GDP to grow roughly at trend pace in 2024. In emerging markets, policy cuts are expected to be announced sooner. Japan stands apart because its inflation pickup was largely desired. After three decades of anemic price pressures or outright deflation, wage increases in 2023 signalled that the Bank of Japan was moving towards its goal of establishing a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. The BoJ is therefore poised to move toward an exit from its policy of yield curve control in April 2024, although a formal abandonment of these measures is unlikely until October 2024, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Even so, Japanese inflation should remain far below the levels experienced by its G10 peers during this cycle. China also stands apart when it comes to policy stimulus, as authorities have sought to counteract sluggish economic growth. Our economists expect China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in 2024 as the boost from post-covid reopening fades, but partly offset by a slightly smaller housing drag, a modest rebound in global trade, and additional policy easing. The world’s second-largest economy still has challenges, however. Its property downturn is likely to endure, and there is still a risk that the resulting pessimism becomes entrenched. The country’s ongoing demographic deterioration and persistently shrinking working-age population will require it to reinvent its growth model. A modest cyclical rebound in exports is unlikely to reverse the ongoing diversification of global value chains away from China. “Near-term growth in China should benefit from further policy stimulus, but China’s multi-year slowdown will likely continue,” Hatzius writes. Source: https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-global-economy-will-perform-better-than-many-expect-in-2024.html#:~:text=,as%20it%20did%20in%202023

La temporada de fin de año es una de las de mayor gasto para los hogares, teniendo en cuenta que es época de reuniones en familia, aguinaldos, Navidad y Año Nuevo. Y aunque estas fechas están rodeadas de un fuerte significado emocional, es importante que las familias latinoamericanas planifiquen con inteligencia sus finanzas, especialmente en meses en los que las tasas de interés siguen altas y la inflación apenas comienza a retroceder en la mayoría de países. Estos son los 6 consejos para controlar las finanzas en el fin de año1. Elaborar un presupuesto: un presupuesto se basa en los ingresos seguros de la persona cada mes, y a partir de allí descontar los gastos fijos, el dinero destinado al ahorro y al pago de deudas, y el remanente que queda para los demás gastos. Estos últimos son los recursos que se pueden usar para las festividades, dijo la Asociación de Bancos Privados del Ecuador (Asobanca), en uno de sus contenidos. 2. Estar alerta con los gastos hormiga: este tipo de gastos, que parecen pequeños, siempre se acumulan. “Es época de celebración, por ende, puede que desees darte un par de gustos cuyos montos no son considerables. No obstante, si comienzas a pedir mucho de comida a domicilio, comprar decoraciones que te encuentras ocasionalmente, o haces clic en los anuncios de productos y suscripciones interesantes, poco a poco irás gastando tu presupuesto”, explicó el BBVA. 3. Aprovechar las ofertas: las últimas semanas de noviembre estarán marcadas por días de promociones como el ‘Black friday’, ‘Cyber monday’ y por otros días des ‘grandes descuentos’, que sirven para adelantar algunas compras y ahorrar antes de las fechas especiales de diciembre. 4. Usar con cuidado la tarjeta de crédito: esta tarjeta no es “dinero adicional en tu cuenta”, precisa Asobanca. La tarjeta de crédito es una línea que otorga un préstamo y por ello se debe ser responsable con su uso. “Al usar tu tarjeta piensa en la vida útil de las cosas: si lo que vas a pagar con tarjeta tiene una vida útil corta, entonces usa el pago corriente; en cambio, si lo que vas a comprar tiene una vida útil larga, puedes diferirlo en cuotas”. 5. No dejar para último momento: parte de gastar bien el dinero es la planeación. Desde noviembre se pueden realizar los presupuestos de diciembre, especialmente el dinero para ahorrar y que servirá para amortiguar las deudas en enero. 6. Regalos digitales: para no invertir altos montos en juguetería o dispositivos electrónicos, el BBVA recomienda invertir en tarjetas de regalo vendidas por librerías o consolas de videojuegos, suscripciones a servicios de lectura o aplicaciones útiles, y reducir los dineros invertidos en regalos. ¿Cómo hacer del ahorro un hábito? Aunque ahorrar es un reto para muchas personas, especialmente en épocas de alta inflación, esta es una técnica que sirve para conseguir estabilidad económica, alcanzar metas financieras y estar preparado para enfrentar emergencias económicas. Mibanco, empresa del Grupo Credicorp, compartió estos cinco consejos para crear el hábito de ahorrar: Plan de ahorros: la persistencia y la disciplina son fundamentales para establecer un hábito de ahorro duradero, para esto se debe crear un plan de ahorro, para planificar cuándo y cuánto se ahorrará en cada mes. Metas financieras: definir metas le ayudará a tener claridad sobre la razón detrás del ahorro y la cantidad necesaria. Además, contribuirá a mantener el autocontrol para no gastar en cosas innecesarias. Presupuesto mensual: llevar una lista y un registro detallado de los gastos durante el mes, proporcionará una visión más clara de los gastos y ayudará a identificar áreas donde se puede reducir o eliminar aquellos que son innecesarios. Para esto se debe hacer un seguimiento exhaustivo de las cuentas mensuales y compras adicionales. Pago de deudas: pagar las deudas lo más pronto posible, no solo ayudará a reducir gastos, sino que también permitirá evitar que los intereses de ciertos créditos consuman una parte significativa de los ingresos, lo que hace aún más difícil ahorrar. Esto podrá determinar cuánto dinero se dispone al final de cada mes y cuánto se debe destinar a ahorrar. Establecer un porcentaje ahorro: determinar un porcentaje de los ingresos que se desea ahorrar es esencial, ya que se obliga a destinar una parte de las entradas a una parte de los ahorros de manera consistente. Los expertos sugieren que sea el 10%; sin embargo, este porcentaje puede variar y ser flexible, lo que permite ajustarlo según las necesidades y metas financieras del mes. fuente: https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2023/11/12/seis-consejos-para-cuidar-sus-finanzas-personales-en-la-temporada-de-fin-de-ano/

Key findings 1.     Global growth has so far remained relatively resilient through an extreme surge in inflation paired with one of the sharpest monetary tightening cycles in generations. This suggests that both contracting supply and expanding demand contributed to rising prices and raises a key question for the coming 12 months: have central banks really managed a soft landing of the global economy in such a complex situation? Or is the world facing a hard landing because central banks overreacted to mostly supply-driven inflation, or because they still underestimate the shift in inflation dynamics and will have to go even further to break them? 2.     A soft landing is possible. Global inflation has fallen from more than 9% in 2022 to below 6%. Energy disinflation may have run its course, and food inflation is falling. Remaining pandemic-era supply disruptions have faded, suggesting consumer goods will get cheaper. Once wages have adjusted to higher prices, services inflation should also fall. In Europe – but not in the US – we expect inflation to fall below 2% in the second half of 2024. 3.     Lower inflation, higher growth? Supply-driven inflation lowers growth, so as it reverses it should stabilise demand while at the same time allowing central banks to cut interest rates. This makes a soft landing more likely, particularly in some emerging markets in Asia and South America, where growth prospects have brightened and central banks are already cutting rates. But the path to a soft landing looks increasingly narrow – especially in the US and Europe. 4.     Has the US battle against inflation only just begun? In the US, inflation is expected to stay above 2% beyond 2024. Wage growth is not normalising, and growth and the housing market are picking up despite high interest rates. The risk that the Fed has not yet done enough is significant. While the bar to significant further rate hikes is high, rates may have to stay high for longer to achieve the necessary cooling of growth and inflation. 5.     Even in weak-growth Europe, inflation may not return to target quickly. Wage growth is set to remain high and services inflation usually moves in lockstep in both the Euro Area and the US. Wage growth would have to be absorbed by falling profit margins or by rising productivity growth. However, neither has been the norm in recent decades. 6.     Despite strong wage growth and fading inflation, we expect the Euro Area economy to shrink for the next three quarters. Weak external demand, labour shortages, uncompetitive energy prices and the housing market are expected to weigh on growth before the full extent of the policy tightening has taken effect. In contrast to the US, there is a significant risk that the European Central Bank has already overtightened. If the Euro Area falls into a protracted recession, and deflationary tendencies return, the ECB would need to react quickly and decisively to avoid returning to the effective lower bound. 7.     Global recession? Excluding China, we are now forecasting world GDP growth of less than 1% in 2024, fulfilling some definitions of a global recession. And for China we are not optimistic either. China’s economy is struggling to gain momentum as the global manufacturing cycle weighs and structural weaknesses such as demographics and high debt combine with hesitant stimulus. 8.     Global interest rates are most likely to fall. Rate hike cycles are coming to an end at 4% in the Euro Area, just over 5% in the UK and just under 6% in the US. Weak growth makes rate cuts most likely from Q2 2024, especially in Europe. In the US, the risks are skewed towards higher rates for longer, however. 1.1 Introduction Even though global inflation rates have come down significantly since 2022, the fight against inflation continues to dominate the global economic policy agenda. At the time of the 2022 Green Budget, in October 2022, world inflation peaked at 9.3% year-on-year, more than three times higher than the pre-pandemic norm of around 3% (see Figure 1.1). By June 2023, it had fallen halfway back to the norm, and stood at just under 6%. Both the rise and decline were fairly uniform across advanced economies and emerging markets. In the former, inflation peaked in October 2022 at 8% and fell to just over 4% in June, 2 percentage points (ppt) above ‘normal’. In emerging economies, inflation peaked at 11.3% in September 2022 and was by June back down to just under 8%, 4ppt above the norm of 4%. Even outliers such as Turkey have seen year-on-year inflation halve, from 80% to 40% over the same period. Figure 1.1. World composite inflation (year-on-year %) Source: Haver Analytics and Citi Research. As we highlighted in chapter 1 of last year’s Green Budget, the major drivers of the inflation surge – and subsequent reversal – were widespread supply-side factors, such as pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, labour force distortions, and more recently the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for energy and food prices. This explains the strong global co-movement of inflation rates. Less clear is the role of demand. During the pandemic, many governments generously maintained or even increased corporate and household incomes, for example by sending out checks (US) or allowing employers to put employees on furlough (Europe), funded by aggressive government borrowing. This was facilitated by unprecedented central bank easing, especially asset purchases, and did not just allow households in some parts of the world to maintain large parts of spending (Europe) or even increase it (US) during the pandemic, but also to save large amounts and maintain spending beyond the end of the pandemic. The high inflation rates caused by this combination of a series of large negative supply shocks and positive demand shocks risked becoming so persistent that they would dislodge inflation expectations and thus perpetuate high inflation. Central banks therefore stepped in to anchor expectations, break the inflation surge and swiftly return inflation to target. With inflation rates now well into their decline in most parts of the world, we and most forecasters see global central bank interest rates close to the peak or even starting to reverse. Global growth has remained resilient through the extreme surge in inflation paired with one of the sharpest monetary tightening cycles in generations, which suggests that both supply and demand contributed to rising prices. That raises the key question for the coming 12 months: have central banks really managed a soft landing of the global economy in such a complex situation? Or is the world facing a hard landing because central banks overreacted to mostly supply-driven inflation, and exaggerated concerns that monetary policymakers could lose credibility and inflation expectations could rise? Or do central banks still underestimate the shift in inflation dynamics, and will they therefore have to tighten even further to break them? We begin in Section 1.2 by discussing how the easing of supply constraints, and the resilience of demand, point to a possible ‘soft landing’. We then consider, in Section 1.3, the trends in the labour market and elsewhere which point to the risk of inflation (and interest rates) staying higher for longer. In Section 1.4, we consider the possibility that central banks have already gone too far. In Section 1.5, we examine how the outlook varies across regions, before finally presenting Citi’s latest forecasts (Section 1.6) and concluding (Section 1.7). 1.2 Can we manage a soft landing? Over the past three years, the world experienced a series of highly unusual supply disruptions and thus cost shocks. Pandemic-induced supply shocks First were the shocks triggered by the public health policy reaction to the pandemic, which largely affected goods inflation and have largely faded by now: The global shipping market has relaxed, with key freight cost indices well down on post-pandemic peaks and in some cases below pre-pandemic levels. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures daily rates of dry bulk carrier ships, is averaging 1142 so far this year, down 75% from the 2022 peak and actually 15% below the 2018–19 average. The Harper Petersen Index, which measures weekly container vessel spot chart rates, has averaged 1156 so far this year, which is still double the pre-pandemic average, but also down 75% from the 2022 peak, despite issues around the Panama Canal, for example Supplier lead times are shortening substantially. In the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, for example, supplier lead times were lengthening at their strongest pace since the 1970s in 2021, but are now shortening at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis in 2009. Where inventories of finished goods were depleted in 2021, now firms are reporting that they have too much in stock. In Germany’s widely followed ifo manufacturing survey, for example, firms are now reporting inventories nearly as full relative to demand as they were during the first lockdown in 2020. In summary, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has dropped from more than four standard deviations above its post-1997 average in late 2021 to a trough of one-and-a-half standard deviations below it this year (Figure 1.2). This has triggered a disinflation process in core goods, though one which is far from complete (also shown in Figure 1.2). Figure 1.2. Global supply chain pressures (standard deviation from mean) and advanced economy core goods CPI inflation (year-on-year %) Note: AE = advanced economy and represents a weighted average of US, Euro Area, Japan and UK non-energy industrial goods inflation.  Source: New York Fed, Haver Analytics and Citi Research. **If you want to read the complete article, click here to go to the original source: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/global-economic-outlook-how-hard-will-we-land

Las promociones a meses sin intereses, disponibles tanto en tarjetas de crédito bancarias como no bancarias, permiten a los consumidores dividir el costo de una compra de múltiples mensualidades BUEN FIN Se acerca el Buen Fin, una de las temporadas más esperadas por los amantes de las compras , pues existe una gran variedad de ofertas y promociones a meses sin intereses por lo que puede ser abrumadora. Ante esto, la Comisión Nacional para la Protección y Defensa de los Usuarios de Servicios Financieros (Condusef), ha compartido a los usuarios sobre la importancia de entender cómo funcionan estas promociones para evitar posibles problemas en tus finanzas personales. Las promociones a meses sin intereses, disponibles tanto en tarjetas de crédito bancarias como no bancarias, permiten a los consumidores dividir el costo de una compra de múltiples mensualidades. Esto permitirá que los pagos parezcan pequeños y asequibles a primera vista . Sin embargo, es fundamental destacar que las mensualidades deben pagarse además del pago mínimo requerido en tu crédito revolvente. De lo contrario, se acumularán intereses sobre el saldo no cubierto. La Condusef ofrece valiosos consejos para evitar caer en trampas financieras durante el Buen Fin: 1. Razona tu compra: Antes de adquirir un producto en oferta, pregúntate si realmente lo necesitas o si solo lo compras debido a la promoción. Es esencial recordar que, al optar por meses sin intereses, estás comprometiendo tus ingresos futuros. 2. Analiza tu capacidad de pago: Asegúrate de que puedes cubrir las mensualidades sin poner en riesgo tu capacidad financiera. Conoce tus ingresos y gastos para tomar decisiones informadas. 3. Compara precios: La comparación de precios es clave. Diferentes establecimientos pueden ofrecer descuentos variados para el mismo producto, lo que te permite tomar una decisión más acertada en cuanto a la promoción que mejor se adapte a tu presupuesto. 4. Compra bienes duraderos: Prioriza la adquisición de productos que tengan una vida útil prolongada y beneficios a largo plazo, como electrodomésticos y computadoras. Evita utilizar meses sin intereses para compras menores o gastos recurrentes que se acumulan mes tras mes. 5. Paga a tiempo: El incumplimiento en el pago de las mensualidades puede acarrear intereses adicionales que deberás asumir. Es fundamental mantener un registro de las fechas de vencimiento y cumplir con tus pagos puntualmente. 6. Verifca la promoción: Al momento de realizar la compra, cerciórate de que la cantidad que figura en el voucher sea la correcta y coincida con la copia que te entrega el comercio. Además, asegúrate de que se especifique que la compra se realizó a meses sin intereses. 7. Liquida tu adeudo antes del plazo: En caso de que dispongas de recursos adicionales, considera liquidar el monto restante de la promoción antes del plazo establecido. Algunos bancos requieren que notifiques tu intención de pagar de forma anticipada para evitar que sigan cobrándote las mensualidades.23/10/23, 12:56 Este Buen Fin, no hagas MAL USO de los meses sin intereses Este Buen Fin, no hagas MAL USO de los meses sin intereses, asimismo, durante el Buen Fin, la clave para sacar el máximo provecho de las promociones a meses sin intereses sin poner en riesgo tus finanzas personales radica en la planificación, el autocontrol y la toma de decisiones informadas. La Condusef destaca la importancia de ser un consumidor responsable y de estar consciente de tus capacidades financieras antes de comprometerte con compras a crédito a largo plazo. Fuente: https://www.debate.com.mx/economia/Este-Buen-Fin-no-hagas-MAL-USO-de-los-meses-sin-intereses-20231022-0178.html

Global geopolitical tensions often play a pivotal role in shaping people’s perceptions of economic growth. Research shows concern about such issues can cause people and businesses to become more cautious about spending and investing, which can ultimately lead to economic recession. The recent escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is no different. Investors around the world are worried about the repercussions of this war – particularly in light of an already bleak picture for global economic growth. Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel is the latest chapter of a cycle of violence that has been going on in this region for decades and, sadly, seems to have no end in sight. While the reasons behind these events are complex, the conflict’s potential immediate and long-term economic ramifications are easier to grasp. After all, if the Russia-Ukraine war has taught us one thing, it’s that we should be mindful of the intricate interdependencies that shape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. How conflicts can affect the economy Internal and inter-state conflicts often have a significant effect on stock market indices, exchange rates, and commodity prices – sometimes even sending prices higher in the lead-up to hostilities. The longer-term economic impact is typically more complicated to assess, however. The lasting effects of even seemingly dramatic events on investor behaviour can be hard to predict. Conflicts in the Middle East tend to lead to spikes in oil prices – think of the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, and the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91. Since the region accounts for nearly a third of global oil supply, any instability can create market uncertainty based on concerns about interruptions to global oil supply. This uncertainty is reflected in the risk premium in oil markets. This is the price paid for oil traded ahead of time in the futures markets versus the real-time price of oil. It reflects the profits that speculators expect to receive from buying and selling oil during a time of conflict, as well as the hedging needs of businesses that produce and consume oil and their concerns about supply and demand. And so, the effect of the latest Israel-Hamas conflict on global financial markets will depend on the involvement of other major regional powers. If the conflict remains between Israel and Hamas, the effect will probably be limited and arguably exclusive to countries with direct trade exposure to Israel or Palestine. But if the conflict spreads to major oil-producing nations in the region such as Iran, the global economy could face severe repercussions as energy costs for businesses and households could spike if supply is interrupted. Higher energy prices would hamper central banks’ efforts to tame inflation pressures in most advanced and emerging economies. If this leads to a “higher for longer” monetary policy that keeps interest rates elevated, it would push up the cost of borrowing and refinancing by governments, companies and people. History can offer some insights into how the impact on the global economy could unfold under these different scenarios. For instance, the 50-day war between Israel and Hamas in 2014, which killed 2,200 people, mostly civilians, had no significant effect on the global economy or financial markets. Yet, when Israel and Hezbollah clashed in Lebanon in 2006, oil prices surged globally due to fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. What to expect this time Unfortunately, there is another factor to consider at the moment. The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has happened alongside the realignment of various global alliances. This slow creep of “deglobalisation” can be seen in a shift in trade policies in recent years. Countries such as the US and UK are relocating economic activity including sourcing or manufacturing products from different countries out of concern about relying on suppliers in potentially hostile regions, as well as the impact of imports from low-wage countries on struggling local labour markets At the moment, these shifts can also be seen in the reactions to the Hamas attack on Israel. A two-state solution) to the Israel/Palestine conflict was initially laid out by the United Nations in 1947 and reaffirmed in 1974, with almost unanimous support around the world. But there has been some nuance in the international reactions to the attack. With most western countries quickly voicing support for Israel’s right to defend itself, while countries like China and Russia called for a ceasefire without taking a stance on Hamas. This suggests that the issue of Israel-Palestine could tie in with the broader trend towards the new geopolitical divisions that were already starting to emerge before Hamas’s attack. A prolonged conflict between Israel and Palestine, especially with the involvement of major regional powers, could further accelerate this global realignment and have detrimental consequences for global economic growth. Under these circumstances, investors are already bracing for increased financial volatility across the board – from stocks and government bonds to commodity markets. So-called safe-haven assets like gold are typically used as protection against overwhelming economic uncertainty. The price of gold has shot up following the latest escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Financial markets will continue to monitor the conflict between Israel and Hamas for signs of escalation. Anything that pushes oil prices up further will reignite fears of higher inflation. Unfortunately, this is happening just as many countries were starting to see inflation slow again after two years of persistently high consumer prices. Source: https://theconversation.com/how-the-israel-hamas-war-could-affect-the-world-economy-and-worsen-global-trade-tensions-215930

When it comes to financial regrets, there are some that are shared across generations. A 2022 ConsumerAffairs survey found that the number one financial regret boomers, Gen Xers and millennials all share is not becoming financially literate when they were younger. Considering how important personal finance education is in terms of building a financially secure future, this isn’t too surprising. That doesn’t make these regrets sting any less, though. Besides neglecting financial education, there are many other shared money regrets across generations. Here are the top 10 biggest ones, according to ConsumerAffairs survey data. Percentages are based on how many respondents chose the answer as the worst money-related decision they’ve ever made. Waiting on Financial Education: 23% Tied first with spending money on unnecessary material items is neglecting personal financial education. Nearly a quarter of baby boomers, Gen Xers and millennials all agreed this was their biggest money regret. Financial education is a key part of being able to manage your money and make sound financial decisions. Having a solid foundation can help you achieve short- and long-term goals, such as investing in retirement, creating an emergency fund, buying a home and paying off expensive debt. Making Unnecessary Material Purchases: 23% Many older individuals regret buying a lot of material items they didn’t really need, especially when it meant missing out on valuable or memorable life experiences. “Having worked with boomers, Gen Xers and millennials, the biggest money regret I consistently hear across all generations is spending money on material things instead of life experiences,” said Andy Krafft, CPA, CFP and wealth advisor at Luminary Wealth. “Almost everyone regrets a purchase at some point in their life, whether it be an expensive car, house or even overpriced clothing, but I rarely hear people voice regrets about experiences they’ve shared with family and friends,” added Krafft. “The material things eventually pass away and are forgotten, but the shared experiences last forever, making it a worthwhile investment.” This goes for luxury purchases, too, especially those that don’t generate income. Karl Jacob, the CEO at LoanSnap, added, “One of my favorite sayings, ‘If you can’t afford two of something, don’t buy it’ applies here most people regret big purchases — whether vacations and/or luxury items that don’t generate cash flow.” Living Paycheck to Paycheck: 22% Around 69% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, according to PR Newswire. There are many reasons why people live this way, but one of the biggest ones comes from overspending. When you live paycheck to paycheck, it’s difficult to save, pay off debt or improve your financial situation. In order to break the cycle, you might need to reevaluate your income and expenses, as well as set some goals for yourself. Christopher Day, CEO and founder at Days Global Advisors, suggested, “Start saving and try not to be a victim of excessive consumption. Maximize your IRA. It will make a difference.” Renting Rather Than Owning a Home: 20% A fifth of survey respondents noted that they regretted renting instead of buying property the most. “For many, continues to be the best way to retain wealth as home prices tend to appreciate,” said Jacob. Along with this, Jacob found that people tend to regret not refinancing their home for a lower rate when they had the chance. “Many people who could have gotten a low interest rate loan — lower payments — locked in for 30 years didn’t,” added Jacob. These same people ended up paying much more each month than they needed to, even if they eventually refinanced their mortgage. Not Having an Emergency Fund: 20% An emergency fund is a key part of obtaining financial security, but many people wait too long to start setting aside money in one. Without this fund, it can be harder to manage unexpected or sudden expenses. When these expenses do come up, people often turn to debt to be able to pay for what they need. “Over my career of 23 years as a financial advisor, I’ve inherited clients that regret not saving for their kids’ college expenses, not having an emergency fund and not living within their means,” said Brad Hindman, CFP, financial advisor and managing director of investments at Wells Fargo Advisors. Engaging in Frivolous Spending: 20% Frivolous or excessive spending is another major financial regret many people share. Not only can this limit one’s ability to save, but it can also lead people to accruing expensive debt. As with buying unnecessary material items, there are many reasons why people engage in frivolous spending. One of these reasons is in an effort to keep up with the Joneses. “Some of the worst financial decisions boomers have made is trying to keep up with the Joneses and taking on more debt than they can handle,” said Sebastian Jania, owner of Ontario Property Buyers. “Living with a credit mentality something that was popularized just a few decades ago, and has unfortunately left a lot of boomers tough financial spots.” Fortunately, Jania added, there are ways the younger generations can learn from their elders and avoid making similar mistakes. “For the younger generations, they can learn to use leverage strategically rather than using leverage on things that won’t make money, such as having nicer clothes.” Having No Long-term Financial Plan: 19% For many young people, it’s not always easy to see the bigger picture. This often leads people to neglect creating a financial plan for their futures, which can jeopardize their financial security or set them back several years. Taking some time to plan out your finances and life goals can help get you on the right track and ensure you achieve what you’ve set out to do. Not Saving Enough for Retirement: 19% When you’re younger, it’s easy to think of retirement as something for your future self to worry about. But this thought process can lead to some major regrets down the line, especially if it means you don’t save enough money to retire comfortably when you’re ready to do so. “I sense the deepest regret comes from those who waited too long to plan for retirement. Every few months, I’ll meet with client referrals and they express that they want to retire… now. Yet, when we calculate their assets and resources and show them that they haven’t factored in taxable income or healthcare, for example — and that their money will last about 4 years, it’s a real ‘punch in the gut.’ Do not wait later than age 50 to create your retirement plan,” said Hindman. “Save as much as you can as early as you can,” suggested Krafft. “Don’t wait until you have everything figured out to start saving money towards retirement. And don’t feel bad if you can’t put away the typical recommendation of 15%-20% of your income. Any little bit you can put away today will be worth it down the road.” Allowing Lifestyle Creep: 18% Lifestyle creep, or lifestyle inflation, is what happens when you spend more money as you make more money. Over time, this increased spending starts to feel necessary, putting you in a position where you need to continue paying for goods and services that you might not actually need just to maintain your new lifestyle. This can lead to greater financial struggles later on, especially if your income drops or your cost of living increases more quickly than your earnings. And it can make it harder to save or invest. Not Investing: 18% So many people wait to invest until much later in life, or when they feel they’re finally earning enough money to make it worthwhile. But the sooner you start investing, the more your money can grow — and potentially set you up for a more financially secure future. “My advice for younger generations is ‘Time is money.’ Specifically, compound interest is your best friend when it comes to saving money,” said Hindman. “I’m grateful that my parents encouraged me to become financially savvy. For example, my mom gave me a book when I was 17 that inspired me to start saving — and I distinctly recall seeing examples of compound interest and my jaw literally dropped.” Hindman gave an example to illustrate the way compound interest works. “At age 18, it takes a monthly investment of $322 at 8% annual compounding interest to have $2,000,000 at age 65. However, if you wait until age 40, that number increases to $2,102 monthly, and if you wait until age 50, that number increases to $5,779 per month,” said Hindman. “The total amount of money invested at age 18 is $181,608 vs. $1,040,220 at age 50. It doesn’t take a math whiz to understand that ‘time is money.’ Literally.” Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-money-regret-boomers-gen-130010192.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADuXw6WTH4DBk711ChwXep0ozaKdcj4wuWOvUZOVujvdsYFBzVcHPxuhLQOaedGxDc1CZwgcZ-vRO2R28ktVIN05bpAveu4S683DC6Qz5DpEUblIyWnPu9pze0h04dhGOYR1B8gnwWgJ40HwzcLrMAlbiIvtSBEKmAzOA9Ls8NeD

La tasa de rendimiento que ofrecen los Cetes es de más del 11 por ciento; sin embargo, la retención de impuestos será una de las más altas de la historia. De aprobarse la Ley de Ingresos de 2024 en los términos que fue propuesta por el ejecutivo, los ahorradores en Cetesdirecto deberán pagar una retención sobre sus ganancias de 1.48 por ciento, la más alta de que se tenga registro. Carlos Ramírez, socio consultor de Integralia, advirtió que parecería que el aumento de la retención de ISR va directamente en contra de los ahorradores en Cetesdirecto, toda vez que la tasa de rendimiento que ofrecen por los Cetes a un mes 11.25 por ciento, mientras que la inflación está descendiendo, en agosto se ubicó en 4.64 por ciento. Da la impresión de que Hacienda está anticipando que las tasas de interés no descenderán tanto en 2024 mientras la inflación sí por lo que quiere obtener más recursos de los ahorradores. “Parecería que Hacienda está sintiendo que le está saliendo caro pagar los rendimientos de Cetesdirecto y les quiere dar una mordida”, enfatizó. Cetesdirecto tiene 1 millón 732 mil 50 contratos acumulados con inversionistas. El producto al día de hoy maneja un portafolio de inversión de 107 mil 554 millones de pesos, lo que significa un aumento vertiginoso, de 71.5 por ciento, comparado con el cierre de 2022. Invertir en el lugar al que perteneces Hoy en día la inversión en Cetesdirecto a 3 meses ofrece un rendimiento de 11.40 por ciento; a 6 meses de 11.53 por ciento y a un año de 11.57 por ciento. Durante este año la inversión en Cetesdirecto paga un impuesto de ISR de 0.15 por cientosobre el rendimiento que obtiene el ahorrador, el cual lo descuenta la plataforma de manera automática, afirmaron ejecutivos del producto manejado por Nacional Financiera. Es el único impuesto que se paga por invertir en este producto y cada año los inversionistas en Cetesdirecto pueden ingresar a su cuenta en el portal y bajar la hoja de retención de ISR que se les aplicó a sus rendimientos para hacer su declaración de impuestos. Cetesdirecto presenta fallas este jueves Al mediodía de este jueves 14 de septiembre la plataforma está presentando fallas, por lo que los usuarios no pueden ingresar a verificar si tienen algún comprobante de retención por sus inversiones del año pasado. Los ejecutivos de Cetesdirecto comentaron que estas intermitencias en el sistema generalmente ocurren los jueves. “Los jueves se realizan los procesos operativos de compraventa de títulos, por lo que el acceso a la plataforma se dará de forma paulatina, le agradecemos su tiempo de espera, solicitamos de su apoyo para que lo intenten el transcurso de la tarde”, explicaron. “Ahorita no va a tener acceso, no por su usuario y contraseña entonces, por favor, sígalo intentando en el transcurso de la tarde”, abundaron. Fuente: https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/2023/09/14/hacienda-quiere-morder-tus-ahorros-ley-de-ingresos-tendria-aumento-historico-al-isr-de-los-cetes/

Te decimos qué tan bueno es un cambio de hábitos. Recientemente se dieron a conocer los resultados del reporte de “Bienestar Financiero 2023”, elaborado por Invested, Vanguard, Aon y Amedirh, a personas empleadas de más de 100 empresas en México con la finalidad de conocer el nivel de su salud financiera. ¿Quieres conocer los resultados?, en este artículo te los daremos, además de proporcionarte algunos consejos para alcanzar una buena salud financiera. ¿Cómo está la salud financiera de las y los mexicanos? El estudio evaluó la situación financiera de las y los mexicanos y como se puede alcanzar el empoderamiento financiero a través de una adecuada administración de las finanzas personales; entre los resultados más destacados encontramos los siguientes: 22.75% de las personas encuestadas (1 de cada 5) afirmó que utiliza más del 50% de sus ingresos para el pago de deudas, en tanto que 4 de cada 10 personas designan entre el 20% y 50% de sus recursos mensuales para saldarlas; solo el 9.64% indicó que no tiene deudas. 9.30% de las y los empleados encuestados comentaron que sienten que sus deudas están fuera de control. 85% de las y los entrevistados consideró que sufre de estrés financiero, siendo los factores detonantes de sus preocupaciones: a) El dinero (55.77%) b) El retiro (53.50%) c) Las deudas (37.12%) d) Sus dependientes económicos (36.99%) e) Los gastos diarios (35.99%) f) Los gastos médicos (21.30%) 7.94% de los hombres y el 3.87% de las mujeres encuestadas afirmaron tener una clara idea de sus objetivos financieros. Las y los millennials son la generación con peor bienestar financiero, debido a que el 64.71% no tiene control de sus deudas, el 26.98% de las personas encuestadas en este rango de edad no tiene conocimiento sobre su patrimonio actual, y el 30.63% no tiene idea sobre sus ingresos y gastos. 29.66% indicó que no cuenta con ningún ahorro para cubrir alguna eventualidad. Las y los trabajadores destinan aproximadamente 11 horas mensuales de su horario laboral al estrés generado por su situación financiera. Características de salud financiera vs estrés financiero. Se puede considerar que una persona cuenta con salud financiera cuando tiene la capacidad de cumplir con sus obligaciones financieras sin problemas, es así que, el Center for Financial Services Innovation (CFSI) creó una lista con características para que las personas identifiquen si tienen o no, buena salud financiera: • Gastas menos del monto de tus ingresos. • Pagas tus facturas a tiempo y en su totalidad. • Cuentas con ahorros suficientes en productos financieros formales. • Mantienes un nivel de deuda sostenible. • Tu historial crediticio no cuenta con notas negativas. • Cuentas con seguros que cubren todas tus necesidades. • Realizas un presupuesto para planificar tus gastos. En contraste, cuando una persona sufre de estrés financiero no solo se ve afectada emocionalmente, conduciéndolas a tomar decisiones financieras impulsivas; a pasar horas pensando cómo pagar sus deudas o cómo llegará al final de la quincena; también puede llegar a afectar su salud física, padeciendo problemas gastrointestinales, de memoria o de sueño, depresión, pérdida de cabello o afectaciones en la piel, entre otros. Así como existe un listado sobre las características de una buena salud financiera, también hay una lista de características sobre las emociones que sienten las personas que sufren de estrés financiero, mismas que, según la Asociación Nacional para la Salud Mental de Reino Unido, son las siguientes: • Cada que consultan su saldo bancario o hablan con su Banco tienen miedo. • Se estresan cada que intentan entender cómo funcionan las instituciones financieras o productos financieros. • Tienen sentimientos de culpa cuando gastan dinero, aun cuando se encuentre contemplado en su presupuesto. • Sufren de agotamiento por sus problemas de dinero. • Experimentan estrés por la presión de mantenerse a sí mismos u otras personas. ¿Cómo alcanzar la salud financiera? El primer paso para encaminarte a una buena salud financiera es perder el miedo y reconocer la situación de tus finanzas, para ello tendrás que hacer una evaluación tomando en cuenta factores como: gastos básicos mensuales, nivel de endeudamiento, gastos hormiga e ingresos mensuales. Si haces una sumatoria y ya sabes cuál es el panorama de tus finanzas, es momento de acabar con las deudas; realizar un presupuesto será de gran ayudar, ya que en él deberás determinar un monto fijo mensual para liquidar una a una tus obligaciones financieras. Obtener un ingreso extra nunca está demás, así que si puedes equilibrar tu empleo actual con algún otro proyecto que te genere más ingresos, te será muy útil para comenzar a ahorrar o protegerte ante alguna eventualidad. Aprende a confiar en las diferentes herramientas financieras que existen en el mercado, por ejemplo, una cuenta de ahorro te podrá ayudar a fomentar este hábito si programas cuándo y cuánto es lo que quieres ahorrar, o saber que un seguro de gastos médicos te ayudará a proteger tus finanzas en caso de alguna enfermedad o accidente. Comienza a hacer compras inteligentes, para ello planea tus gastos fijos, compara precios y evita compras impulsivas. Fuente: https://revista.condusef.gob.mx/2023/06/la-salud-financiera-de-las-y-los-mexicanos-es-buena/

En julio, el rendimiento fue de 4.73%, mientras que la inflación en el país se situó en 4.79%. El rendimiento real histórico del Sistema del Ahorro para el Retiro (SAR) ha estado por debajo de la inflación general por 28 meses consecutivos, así lo demuestra información de la Comisión Nacional del Sistema del Ahorro para el Retiro (Consar). Al cierre de julio, el rendimiento histórico de las administradoras de fondos para el retiro (afores) fue de 4.73%, mientras que la inflación en el país fue de 4.79 por ciento. La última vez que el rendimiento histórico estuvo arriba de la inflación fue en marzo del 2021. En ese momento la inflación se ubicó en 4.67% y el rendimiento en 5.45 por ciento. Si bien en el 2021, el rendimiento que publica mensualmente la Consar, se mostró resiliente manteniéndose en niveles de 5% fue hasta el 2022 cuando el SAR sufrió las consecuencias de la volatilidad ocasionada por la reapertura de la economía postcovid, la acelerada inflación, el incremento en las tasas de los bancos centrales y la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. El 2023 ha sido un mejor año para el SAR en cuanto a rendimientos, sin embargo, aún está por debajo de los niveles pre-pandemia. Como previamente se mencionó el rendimiento se ubicó en 4.73% con lo cual disminuyó desde 4.79% registrado en enero. No obstante, la disminución del rendimiento es menor a lo observado en el mismo periodo del año pasado cuando pasó de 5.24 a 4.89 por ciento. La contracción menos pronunciada en este año es consecuencia de que el Sistema del Ahorro para el Retiro se ha visto beneficiado por la estabilidad en las tasas de referencia de los bancos centrales, pero en particular de la tasa del Banco de México. Ante la estabilidad en las tasas, las administradoras de fondos para el retiro generaron 255,296 millones de pesos en plusvalías para los trabajadores al cierre de julio con lo cual se ha confirmado que las minusvalías de todo el 2022 han sido revertidas. La tasa de Banxico se encuentra en 11.25% desde mayo después de haber completado un ciclo de 15 incrementos consecutivos que se presentaron desde junio del 2021 hasta marzo de este año. Analistas no prevén cambios en la tasa en lo que resta del año. Una vez que la Junta de Gobierno del banco central decida disminuir la tasa de interés se traducirá en plusvalías para los trabajadores porque cuando la tasa baja es cuando el precio del bono en tenencia de las afores sube. Carlos Ramírez Fuentes, expresidente de la Consar, comentó en su momento a El Economista que las afores ya lograron posicionarse en el pico más alto de la tasa y “es ahí en donde se quiere estar para cuando venga la baja en la tasa se manifieste en plusvalías”. “Las plusvalías más grandes en la historia del SAR han sido cuando las administradoras compraron en tasa alta y luego esas tasas bajaron, por eso es una gran oportunidad para generar esas plusvalías”, mencionó Ramírez Fuentes. Información de la Consar señala que las administradoras han podido generar 2.85 billones de pesos consecuencia de los rendimientos generados, esto representó 50.5% de los 5.65 billones de pesos que se encuentran en el Sistema con corte a julio. Continúa atractivo de bonos a 10 y 20 años La Consar también informó que las afores mantuvieron una posición de 34.2% en los bonos gubernamentales a tasa fija nominal con plazos de 10 a 20 años, al cierre de julio, con lo cual se observó un nuevo máximo en lo que va del año. La tenencia mostró un incremento de 16.6 puntos porcentuales en comparación con el mismo periodo del año pasado. Dicho de otra manera, en julio del 2022, las afores tenían en su poder 17.6 por ciento. Con los datos al cierre de julio, las administradoras de fondos hilaron ocho meses con una tenencia de 30% o más en dichos bonos de gobierno. Cabe recordar que los bonos gubernamentales a tasa fija se conforman de los Bonos M, Udibonos y Bonos de Desarrollo del Gobierno Federal (Bondes). Source: https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/sectorfinanciero/El-rendimiento-de-las-afores-sumo-28-meses-por-debajo-de-la-inflacion-20230823-0013.html

Estamos prácticamente a un mes de que inicie formalmente el proceso electoral federal de 2024, con el que se renovará la presidencia de la República y el Congreso en México en las elecciones del próximo 2 de junio. El proceso, que aún sin iniciar formalmente y ya se antoja intenso, coincidirá con las elecciones de Estados Unidos que se celebrarán el 5 de noviembre. Esto, para los mercados, naturalmente se traducirá en un periodo de incertidumbre y volatilidad, donde las expectativas de los inversionistas se empiezan a ajustar a lo que podría venir en las nuevas administraciones. Resultaría prácticamente imposible predecir con exactitud el comportamiento de los mercados, donde la incertidumbre democrática se abona a los entornos complejos como el que vivimos ahora, de políticas monetarias restrictivas que han producido un enfriamiento económico a nivel global, aunado conflictos geopolíticos que ejercen presiones inflacionarias, y eventos sorpresa. Sin embargo, la incertidumbre de cada seis años podría verse reflejada en el llamado “Superpeso”. En una charla que sostuve con José Ramón de la Rosa Flores, subdirector de Economía en Grupo Financiero Actinver, comentó que si uno toma en cuenta las expectativas de las elecciones presidenciales en México desde el 2000 hasta el 2018, el tipo de cambio tendía a depreciarse alrededor de un 7% tres meses antes del día de las elecciones. Vale la pena resaltar que hasta el 2018, los comicios se realizaron a inicios de julio, pero en este 2024 se realizarán, por primera vez, en junio a raíz de un cambio legislativo. “Por ahí de febrero o marzo podrías empezar a ver que el tipo de cambio se te presiona 7%, luego, un mes antes del día de elección, tiende a corregirse y desaparece esta incertidumbre que hubo. Esto es algo que estaríamos esperando, que si cierra 2023 en 17.80, esperamos que se suba a 19.50 y luego tener un ajuste hacia los 19 pesos por dólar al cierre del 2024”, dijo durante la entrevista. Al echar un vistazo a los datos históricos en Investing.com efectivamente se puede apreciar que el peso mexicano ha registrado una depreciaciones mensual durante abril a junio de los años electorales, a excepción del 2012, cuando las pérdidas mensuales se ciñeron al bimestre de mayo y junio. En el 2006, en contraste, el periodo de depreciación mensual se extendió desde febrero hasta junio, apreciándose nuevamente en julio. USD/MXN Investing.com Lo que ocurra pasando las elecciones con el tipo de cambio dependerá de los mensajes que la candidatura ganadora de la presidencia lance a los mercados y a los inversionistas. Durante una conferencia de prensa que cubrimos en Investing.com México, la directora de Análisis Económico y Financiero de Banco Base, Gabriela Siller Pagaza, hizo énfasis en que los mercados “escuchan atentamente” a la candidatura ganadora y reaccionan acorde. El escenario más favorable para la divisa nacional, visto desde la paridad cambiaria, es que la persona ganadora se muestre a favor del libre mercado y el comercio internacional, aprovechando las oportunidades del nearshoring, que ha sido uno de los principales elementos que han dado impulso al peso mexicano. “Pudiéramos ver niveles de 15.80 por dólar, después de las elecciones siempre y cuando no quede en un mismo partido la presidencia y con la mayoría en el Congreso porque ya no habría contrapesos y puede hacer cambios en la Constitución”, explicó la experta. El analista de Actinver coincide en esta posibilidad, pero advierte que, antes de ver un repunte, se tendrá un entorno de volatilidad con tendencia a la depreciación del peso mexicano. Después, las posiciones continuarán ajustándose a las expectativas generadas por el nuevo gobernante y la evolución de factores como las políticas monetarias del Banco de México y la Reserva Federal. Aún así, no se pueden descartar sorpresas rumbo a las elecciones. Los analistas de Citibanamex hacen notar en un reporte que los 12 meses previos de estos mismos años electorales, el tipo de cambio ha mantenido un desempeño constante al alza, periodos en los cuales la moneda local se ha depreciado en promedio 9%. En 2023 se perfila a la ruptura de esta tendencia pues, en lo que va del año, el peso mexicano se ha apreciado más de un 12%. En Actinver, como ya mencioné, predicen que el tipo de cambio cerrará en 17.80 este 2024; en Banco Base predicen que concluirá en 17.90 mientras que en Citibanamex ofrecen un rango de entre 17.70 y 17.90, lo que implicaría una apreciación del peso de, al menos, un 8% este año. USD/MXN Citibanamex Fuente: Citibanamex ¿Qué esperar de la Bolsa? La influencia de los procesos electorales en el mercado de valores local y su índice de referencia, el S&P/BMV IPC, quizás podría ser menos predecible, sin embargo, los analistas de Citibanamex se dieron a la tarea de buscar algún patrón que pudiera dar un poco de luz ante un futuro incierto. “Podemos mencionar que, en los años electorales de 1993, 1999, 2005 y 2011, el saldo que presentó el mercado accionario local en los 12 meses previos a las elecciones fue favorable con un rendimiento promedio del 21%, tendencia que se rompió en el último año electoral (2018) cuando la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores retrocedió 4%”, señalaron en un reporte. Los estrategas reconocen que estas estadísticas no garantizan un patrón similar en los próximos 12 meses, pero sí marcan una tendencia que podría estar en línea con la expectativa de los analistas de que el S&P/BMV IPC alcanzará las 60,000 unidades a mediados del próximo año. "Podría ser conveniente comenzar a capitalizar tasas de interés, las cuales están llegando a su techo, y considerar una estrategia patrimonial en instrumentos ligados al tipo de cambio”, señalaron. Quizás aún parezca muy pronto el adelantar escenarios sobre uno de los momentos de la vida democrática que genera mayor incertidumbre en múltiples esferas, incluyendo la financiera. Sin embargo, valdría la pena tomar en cuenta las tendencias y comportamientos pasados para darnos una idea de qué podemos esperar en el futuro... o advertir comportamientos atípicos que puedan darnos un par de sorpresas pues nada de lo expuesto aquí es un oráculo. IPC Citibanamex Fuente: Citibanamex Source: https://mx.investing.com/analysis/superpeso-bolsa-y-elecciones-2024-que-esperar-de-la-incertidumbre-democratica-200467750

Like brushing your teeth or getting enough sleep, the first step to developing effective financial habits is to break out of the bad ones. Many Americans are struggling to save. According to Bankrate’s emergency fund report, only 43% of people say they could pay for a $1,000 emergency expense from their savings. A great way to start saving is by recognizing what bad money habits you have and committing to a plan to leave them behind. Here are nine of the most common bad money habits and how you can break out of them. 1. Not having specific savings goals Setting specific savings goals is important not only for the sake of knowing how much you need to save, but also to give you a tangible reason to save. If you don’t have specific savings goals, you may not be deliberately thinking about how much you should be saving and what strategies to undertake to meet those goals. Breaking out of this habit will help set the stage for every other savings habit — and it’s an easy place to start. Take some time now to write down what goals you have, including both short-term goals, such as a vacation or down payment for a house, and long-term goals, such as retirement. You’ll want to factor these goals into your budget along with an end-date target. Then, you can set aside a certain amount of money each month to meet those goals within the desired time frame. 2. Overspending on nonessentials There are a number of ways we might be spending on nonessentials that build up over the course of a month. Impulse purchases can add up. Then before you realize it, you’ve already spent much more than you intended on these discretionary items you don’t really need. If you’re a frequent window shopper, consider this strategy to help overcome the habit: Next time you see a nonessential item you want to buy, write it down on a piece of paper or your phone’s notes app and wait a few days before buying it. After that time passes, you might find that you no longer have a desire for the item, and you can save what you would’ve spent on it. Also, try making a shopping list before you go out to buy stuff. You can tailor the shopping list to ensure you get everything you need and stick within your budget. It might stop your eyes from wandering to other wants and serve as a reminder to not overspend. 3. Letting debt accumulate The average American household carries about $101,915 in debt, according to Debt.org. It’s become a norm for consumers to amass large amounts of debt and then bear the burden of attempting to pay it off slowly over time. Personal loan debt, student loan debt and credit card debt are some of the factors that might contribute to your overall debt. If you let these balances accumulate and only pay off the minimum each month, you’ll end up paying more in interest over time and delaying your ability to overcome debt and start saving more. To break out of debt, first make a list of all the debts you owe, their annual interest rates and when their payments are due. Then, you can begin working on a plan to find more room in your budget to make payments toward those debts. You may want to prioritize those with the highest interest rates first, according to the avalanche method, or those with the smallest balances first, according to the snowball method. If you have federal student loan debt, craft a plan to ensure you make payments on time once repayment starts again in October 2023. Federal loan borrowers have several income-driven repayment plans to consider that could help them minimize those monthly payments. 4. Not planning ahead with a budget Without a budget, you’re not tracking expenses, savings goal progress or what you have available for spending money. A budget is, quite simply, your guide to your own money — without it, it’s easier to fall into negative spending habits. When planning out a budget, make sure to account for wants, needs and savings. According to the 50/30/20 rule, a common budgeting tactic, 50 percent of your income should go toward needs, 30 percent toward wants and 20 percent toward savings. It might be a good idea to even underestimate your monthly income slightly, so you have a bit more flexibility with your spending and don’t end up feeling constricted by the end of the month. 5. Waiting to save until after you’ve already spent your paycheck Even following a budget, it’s easy to neglect savings and end up spending more than you had planned. One common bad savings habit is depositing money into your savings account at the end of the month after you’ve spent on wants and needs. This can lead to saving only the small leftovers of your monthly income and enable you to cut into those savings while they’re still very accessible. To combat this habit, stash the portion of your respective savings away in a savings account as soon as the paycheck is deposited. Savings accounts usually allow only a limited amount of certain transactions each month, so you’ll be less inclined to break into those savings and spend your saved money. Some finance apps can automate the savings process by moving a certain amount of your paycheck into a savings account for you once the funds are deposited. 6. Having no emergency fund According to Bankrate’s 2023 emergency fund report, 57 percent of U.S. adults are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings. Many may not be contributing to an emergency fund at all, or have ended up prioritizing other savings goals, leaving little to their emergency fund. Though higher inflation has made budgets tight, it’s still important to make room for emergency savings. These savings are what help to ensure you can cover unexpected expenses and avoid piling on more debt by paying for such expenses using a credit card or a loan. To start building an emergency savings fund, see where you can make minor changes across different categories of your budget to stash more, and also save any windfalls (such as a tax refund). Consider keeping your emergency savings in an online savings account, since these accounts tend to have much higher yields than traditional savings accounts. 7. Relying on cash advances While cash advances may be necessary in some cases to make ends meet, relying on them too often can lead to an endless cycle of debt. Cash advances might include early payday loans, overdraft protection or buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. They all have one thing in common: Allowing you to spend money you don’t currently have. Cash advances can make it feel like you’re spending free money, but they all require you to pay the advance back eventually, and you might end up struggling to do so, building up greater debt and financial stress. They also frequently come with costly fees. Overdraft fees, for example, average $29.80 per transaction, according to the most recent Bankrate checking account survey. Instead of relying on cash advances, consider other ways you can make room for expenses. Establishing an emergency fund or taking on a side gig are two ways you can account for new expenses. If you frequently overdraw your account, you may want to opt out of overdraft protection to stop incurring overdraft fees. 8. Not paying attention to savings account rates You might not realize how much interest rates fluctuate on savings accounts, but the gap between the lowest and highest savings rates has been growing wider and wider. Today, some of the highest-yielding accounts have annual percentage yields (APYs) of up to 5 percent, while many traditional, big banks are still only offering 0.01 percent APYs on their savings accounts. According to a recent Bankrate survey, 16 percent of Americans say they’re earning no interest, while 14 percent say they’re unsure what their interest rate is. If you don’t know your own savings account rate, you likely don’t know what other financial institutions are offering on their accounts — and what you might be missing out on. Moreover, if you have multiple savings accounts, paying attention to how each of their interest rates varies will help you determine where to keep more of your savings to maximize the return you’re getting. 9. Using out-of-network ATMs One of the most common types of bank fees that eat into consumers’ wallets is ATM fees, which include out-of-network fees and surcharges from your bank. The average combined fee amount for using an out-of-network ATM is $4.66, the highest since 2019, according to Bankrate’s latest checking account survey. If you don’t pay attention to fees, they can really add up over time. Say you withdraw cash from an out-of-network ATM twice a month. At the average fee amount, that would amass over $100 in ATM charges in a year. You can avoid receiving these charges by avoiding out-of-network ATMs. Try checking the bank’s website or your mobile banking app’s ATM locator to take stock of where nearby in-network ATMs are. Alternatively, consider switching to a checking account that refunds ATM fees. Bottom line Our financial well-being is heavily influenced by our habits. Recognizing these habits is the first step to reshaping your financial narrative. The process toward financial well-being isn’t about perfection, but rather learning from past errors and making consistent improvements. By consciously adopting better money practices, consumers can actively choose a path of informed decisions and financial growth. Source: https://www.courant.com/2023/08/23/save-more-money-by-breaking-these-9-bad-financial-habits-starting-now/