Venezuela: impacts on markets and new global geopolitical balance

The capture and extradition of Nicolás Maduro reshapes Venezuela’s future. Analysts assess impacts on oil prices, inflation, markets and global geopolitics.

The capture and extradition to the United States of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro represents a turning point of strong symbolic impact. The operation, conducted swiftly, led to his removal from power and the succession of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez. According to analysts, if in the short term the market reactions should remain contained, the most relevant implications could emerge in the medium-long term, especially on the energy and geopolitical front, in a context of increasing global realignment.

The consequences on the markets: oil, inflation and risk propensity

From the point of view of financial markets, Alex Veroude, Lucas Klein and Seth Meyer, portfolio managers at Janus Henderson, emphasize that the immediate effect of the operation will probably be limited, as “although this development has symbolic weight, its immediate impact on global markets will probably be modest”, they say. Venezuela, they explain, now plays a marginal role in international portfolios after years of economic crisis and sanctions, but for “for the few [companies] that still have a residual exposure to Venezuela (for example Chevron, Repsol, Telefónica), a more stable political context could provide further relief”.

According to the same experts, the first signals could also be reflected on Venezuelan sovereign debt: “in the short term, Venezuelan bonds could benefit from initial support, as markets discount the prospect of political normalization”. On the energy front, Janus Henderson advises caution regarding the instinctive reactions of the markets: “a possible increase in Venezuelan supply would exert downward pressure on crude oil prices, once transport routes have stabilized and sanctions have become clearer”.

A consistent assessment comes from Raphael Thuin, Head of Capital Market Strategies at Tikehau Capital, who believes that investors are now looking beyond short-term geopolitical shocks. As Thuin states, "in recent years, investors and markets have learned to look beyond recurring geopolitical risks and to keep their focus on the fundamental factors that drive the long-term performance of the markets". The global economic exposure to Venezuela remains limited: "the global economic impact of the country remains limited, with relatively contained exposure for most international companies".

However, Thuin also identifies potential positive catalysts, especially related to oil: "one of the stated objectives of the current US administration is to facilitate the entry of a larger amount of Venezuelan oil into global markets", recalling that today the country, despite having huge reserves, "is in fact only a marginal producer at a global level".

More decisive on the macro expectations front is Thomas Mucha, Geopolitical Strategist at Wellington Management, who predicts a bearish impact on crude oil prices: "we expect a drop in oil prices and we believe that the market will price it more quickly than one might expect". This scenario could have positive repercussions on inflation and US monetary policy: "the drop in oil prices implies a drop in inflation, which could trigger a positive market response as it could mean that the Fed can continue to ease monetary policy".

Geopolitical implications: towards a new fragmented global order

On the geopolitical front, Veroude, Klein and Meyer from Janus Henderson see the Venezuelan affair as a signal of structural change. In their view, "the most relevant aspect may lie in its long-term significance, as part of a broader macroeconomic factor of geopolitical realignment". The unilateral action of the United States could create difficult precedents to manage in the future: "if the United States unilaterally asserts itself to promote economic or political objectives, it could create precedents that reverberate in other regions".

According to Janus Henderson, this reinforces the idea of a world divided into spheres of influence: "it is plausible a return to a world of 'well-defined spheres of influence'", with the United States in the Americas, China in Asia and a Europe forced to move in an increasingly complex geopolitical context.

Also, Raphael Thuin of Tikehau Capital advises caution, emphasizing that regime changes increase uncertainty: "geopolitical shifts and regime changes inevitably introduce new uncertainties". For this reason, he concludes, "even in 2026, as in 2025, geopolitics will be a factor to monitor for investors and for the performance of the markets".

Finally, Thomas Mucha of Wellington Management places the event in a long-term dynamic of fragmentation of the global order: "the ongoing fragmentation of the global order, the increase in geopolitical risk and the progressive deterioration of institutional norms [...] continue to pose a challenge for a generalized advancement of the markets". The American action is, according to Mucha, "a further signal of the transition from the economic efficiency objectives of the 'globalization' era to an era in which geopolitical and national security considerations take on an increasing role".

In the long term, this transition could however generate selective opportunities for investors: "these ongoing political and military disruptions are destined to produce more differentiated results and alpha opportunities at the regional, national, sectoral, corporate and asset class level", particularly in areas related to national security, energy and technology.

Source: https://rankiapro.com/en/insights/venezuela-impacts-on-markets-and-new-global-geopolitical-balance/